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Gent University (2020)

Climate Variability and Its Impact on Crop Production in Amhara Region

Belete, Dereje Mengist

Titre : Climate Variability and Its Impact on Crop Production in Amhara Region

Auteur : Belete, Dereje Mengist

Université de soutenance : Gent University

Grade : International Master of Science in Rural Development 2020

Résumé
This study attempted to investigate climate variability and to understand the association of climate variables with crop yield in seven zones of the Amhara Region. Time series data on two climatic variables were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia between 1987 and 2016. Crop production data of two major crops for the main cropping season (Meher) were collected for the period 1997-2015 from the Central Statistical Agency. The data were analyzed using different packages of RStudio Version 1.2.5 software. Coefficient of Variation and Precipitation Concentration Index were applied to analyze the variability in the seasonal and annual rainfall and temperature. Further, Modified Mann–Kendall trend analysis methods were used for the analysis of temperature and rainfall trends and ordinary least square regression has been applied to analyze climate variables impact on crop yield. The finding of this study shows that the rainfall in the region has irregular monthly distribution and less to moderate interannualvariability. Further, Belg rainfall showed more interannualvariability than Kiremt rainfall whereas both interannualmaximum and minimum temperature showed less variability in the region. The study also revealed that the annual and seasonal rainfall showed mixed upward and downward trends. The annual maximum temperature has significantly increased in all stations whereas, the annual minimum temperature showed a significant upward trend in only two stations. The impact of Kirmet and annual minimum on crop yield vary across different crops and zones the annual rainfall and maximum temperature have positively contributed to the growth of crop yield. Generally, the OLS analysis revealed that different crop varieties are affected by climate variables differently. Therefore, an intervention designed to adapt to the impact of climate variables on crop yield should be context oriented.

Mots clés : Temperature, Rainfall, Crop Yield, Climate Variability, Amhara

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Page publiée le 31 janvier 2022