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East China Normal University (2021)

Assessment of the Uncertainty of Runoff and the Water Shortage Risk in the Tarim River Basin under the Impact of Climate Change

左京平

Titre : Assessment of the Uncertainty of Runoff and the Water Shortage Risk in the Tarim River Basin under the Impact of Climate Change

Auteur : 左京平

Grade : Doctoral Dissertation 2021

Université : East China Normal University

Résumé partiel
The arid region of Northwest China,which located in the hinterland of Eurasia with dry climate and scarce rainfall,and almost all rivers in this region originate from mountainous areas.However,due to the scarcity of meteorological and hydrological observation sites in mountainous areas and lack of data,the uncertainty assessment of runoff under the influence of climate change has become a difficult problem.To solve this problem,this study takes the Tarim River basin as a typical representative of the inland river basin in the arid area of Northwest China.Based on the multi-source data,this paper reveals the uncertainty of runoff and the risk of water shortage in Tarim River Basin with a comprehensive method under the historical period and RCP4.5 climate scenarios.The characteristics and uncertainties of runoff change,the correlations between runoff and climate change,the uncertainties of climate change affecting runoff,the change of supply and demand of crop irrigation water demand and the risk of water shortage were analyzed by using multiple indexes of uncertainty measurement and the water shortage index,combining with recursive calculation method of water regime change,time series analysis and correlation analysis of climate and hydrological variables.The results of this study can provide a reference for a scientific understanding of the uncertainty of runoff change under the influence of climate change in the Tarim River Basin,and rationally develop runoff and formulate adaptive policies for water resources under climate change.The major findings are summarized as follows.(1)The uncertainty of runoff change in Tarim River Basin is mainly manifested in the large change amplitude,frequently shifted state of wet and dry,and the change cycle of runoff and monthly water inflow also have uncertainties.From 1965 to 2015,the state of wet and dry in the Tarim River Basin was transferred about 30~50 times.Moreover,runoff has various drought characters in different time-scales,with the alternating frequency of drought change about 60 times and about 20~30 times on the six-month scale and the twelve-month scale respectively.The uncertainty in the change period is manifested in the annual runoff has a significant period of about 2~3 years,which variance contribution accounts for about 24.79%~73.03%,and with the increase of time scale,the differences in the change period of runoff in each sub-basin are expanded.The uncertainty of the inflow mainly shows that the monthly inflow is obvious decrease and the annual inflow frequency is increase with the upward of drought grade.When the drought grade rises by one level,the average monthly inflow in Aksu River Basin,Kaikong River Basin,and the mainstream area decreases about21.53%~49.35%,26.24%~46.16%,and 34.83%~63.84%,respectively.

Mots clés : Runoff ;Uncertainty;Water Shortage Risk ;Climate Change ;Tarim River Basin ;

Présentation (CNKI)

Page publiée le 15 février 2022