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Xi’an University of Technology (西安理工大学) 2021

Research on the Evaluation of Agricultural Sustainable Development in Northwest China Based on Water Resources Carrying Capacity

冯朝红

Titre : Research on the Evaluation of Agricultural Sustainable Development in Northwest China Based on Water Resources Carrying Capacity

Auteur : 冯朝红

Grade : Doctoral Dissertation 2021

Université : Xi’an University of Technology (西安理工大学)

Résumé partiel
The Northwest China is vast and has many ethnic groups.It is an important strategic highland,resource-rich land and ecological barrier for China.However,with the continuous development of social economy,the Northwest China is facing serious water shortage and ecological environmental damage,which has increasingly become the "short board" for sustainable development in the Northwest China.In response to the severe pressure on water resources and the stress of the ecological environment in Northwest China.In this paper,a water resources footprint and carrying capacity model is constructed to evaluate the supply and demand of water resources and the spatial and temporal distribution of water resources carrying capacity in the study area,comparative analysis of the characteristics of virtual water changes in crop production in the study area from three aspects:physical flow,utility flow,and trade flow.Finally,the sustainable development of agriculture in Northwest China was evaluated by using the theory of ecosystem emergy.This research obtained the following main conclusions :(1)Clarified the characteristics of the temporal and spatial patterns of the ecological environment and social economy in Northwest China.By analyzing the changes in land use,normalized vegetation index(NDVI),and vegetation net primary productivity(NPP)in the study area from 2000 to 2018,it is found that urban construction land in Northwest China has been in a trend of expansion.Large-scale urban construction land mainly comes from the transformation of grassland ;The vegetation coverage is low,most of the area vegetation coverage is below 0.5,and the vegetation NPP is 0-200gC/m2,and the ecosystem service value is reduced by 676.827 billion yuan.The social economy of the Northwest China is showing a trend of continuous development.The population in the region has increased by 16.8594 million people,the GDP increased by 5,565.170 billion yuan,and the output value of primary,secondary and tertiary industries has increased by 4,541.50,2,407.60 and 2,701.920 billion yuan respectively.Therefore,the ecological environment in the northwestern region is relatively fragile,and the improvement of the ecological environment and the development of social economy should be considered as a whole.(2)Analyze the status quo of water supply and demand in Northwest China,revealing the characteristics of temporal and spatial changes in water resources carrying capacity in Northwest China.

Mots clés : Northwest China ;Land use dynamics degree ;Ecological environment evaluation ;Carrying capacity of water resources ;Virtual water cycle ;Emergy evaluation ;

Présentation (CNKI)

Page publiée le 19 février 2022