Informations et ressources scientifiques
sur le développement des zones arides et semi-arides

Accueil du site → Doctorat → Egypte → Water Management in the Eastern Nile with Alternative Development Scenarios

Ain Shams University (2020)

Water Management in the Eastern Nile with Alternative Development Scenarios

Kamel,Asmaa Medhat Yousif

Titre : Water Management in the Eastern Nile with Alternative Development Scenarios

Auteur : Kamel,Asmaa Medhat Yousif

Etablissement de soutenance : Ain Shams University

Grade : Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) in civil Engineering 2020

Résumé partiel
Understanding and modelling the complex nature of river systems are essential for efficient use of the water resources. The Nile River was modelled to play an important role in solving conflicts by means of understanding problems and cooperation options. Many water allocation and operation models are used to study and produce some scenarios to support the cooperation among the basin countries. RiverWare software is one of the most recently used models for studying the reservoirs operation management. The developed water allocation model called Eastern Nile Model (ENM) using RiverWare software, has proved its worth application. The effective use of Riverware tools in ENM requires the updating of hydrological conditions, but the hydrological data in ENM ceased in 2002, casting doubt on the possibility of using it for recent periods. In this study, the hydrological conditions in the model were updated from 2003 to 2014 with a simulated flow data, which were taken from the output of rainfall-runoff distributed model (Nile Forecast System (NFS)). The ENM evaluation was performed by comparing the simulated outflows with the observed ones at the locations of Diem, Khartoum and Dongola stations using various statistical criteria. All metrics were considered very good or good. In this research, the updated ENM was used to simulate the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) during the period (2017-2060) for three scenarios and 115 ensembles of hydrological flow data with six years filling period. The results declare that the harm from GERD reservoir especially in the filling phase is catastrophic that could cause drought in Egypt. For instance, the probability of having inflow entering the High Aswan Dam (HAD) less than 55.5 BCM would reach 70% and the probability of having shortages during the filling period bigger than 30 BCM reaches 8.7%. This dissertation used the updated ENM to simulate the filling and operation of the new proposed dams in Ethiopia (Mandaya, Beko Abo and Karadodi) during the period (2019-2060). The ENM simulation was accomplished for two scenarios of new developments and 115 ensembles of hydrological flow data. The results show the harm from the new proposed dams especially in the filling phase is enormous. For example, the probability of decreasing the HAD inflow less than 55.5 BCM reaches 27% and 34% with 2-Dams and 3-Dams scenarios respectively and the maximum shortage reaches 22.5 and 25.6 BCM with 2-Dams and 3-Dams scenarios respectively.

Présentation étendue (EULC)

Page publiée le 25 mars 2022