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Xinjiang University (2021)

Spatial-temporal Variation and Projection of Drought in the Arid Regions of Northwestern China

黄文君

Titre : Spatial-temporal Variation and Projection of Drought in the Arid Regions of Northwestern China

Auteur : 黄文君

Grade : Master 2021

Université : Xinjiang University

Résumé partiel
The arid region of Northwestern China is the main arid climate distribution area in China.The geographical location of the arid region of Northwestern China and the complex topography of high mountains and basins have made water shortages and continuous drought the main limiting factors for the sustainable development of the region.Severe drought disasters will have a huge impact on agricultural production,ecosystem functions,water sources,and socio-economic aspects.Research on the temporal and spatial changes of drought is of great significance to the arid region of Northwestern China.Therefore,this study uses temperature and precipitation data to calculate the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)as an indicator of drought detection,and the vegetation normalized index(NDVI)as an indicator of vegetation change,combined with climate tendency rate and Mann-Kendall non-parametric test,correlation analysis,and other methods have analyzed the spatio-temporal changes of temperature,precipitation,SPEI and NDVI in the northwest arid region from 1961 to 2015.The Weather Research and Forecasting Modell(WRF)was used to predict the climate,drought and vegetation changes in the arid region of Northwestern China from 2016 to 2100 under two typical concentration paths of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5.and using regional climate models to predict the climate,drought and vegetation changes in the arid region of northwest China from 2016 to 2100 under two representative path concentration(RCP2.6 and RCP8.5)

Mots clés : drought ;Northwester arid region ;climate change ;SPEI;the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model ;future projection ;

Présentation (CNKI)

Page publiée le 3 mars 2022