Informations et ressources scientifiques
sur le développement des zones arides et semi-arides

Titre : Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Dryness and Wetness in Different Sub-regions of China

Auteur : 胡侨宇

Grade : Master 2021

Université : Northwest A&F University

Résumé partiel
Drought is one of the most severe and destructive natural disasters.With the warming of global climate and the development of social economy,the impacts of climate change and human activities on drought and its driving factors have gradually become the focus of scientific research.In order to monitor and forecast drought,it is important to analyze the driving factors of drought.The meteorological elements,circulation index,socio-economic indicators and greenhouse gases data were used to analyze the impact of climate change and human activities on drought.Based on the water deficit/surplus（D）,the temporal and spatial variation of drought for different regions of China was revealed,the modified Mann-Kendall method（MMK）were used to test the trend of D ;The circulation index were selected by collinearity analysis and Pearson correlation analysis and its significance ;The multiple linear regression（MLR）model of D and circulation fators were established to make short-term drought forecast for different sub-regions in China.In addition,based on socio-economic indicators,The selected 525 sites were divided into 6 different socio-economical levels to explore the impact of socio-economic and human activities on extreme wet and drought events under different socio-economical levels,the contribution of climate change（represented by circulation factors）and human activities（represented by greenhouse climate）to drought was determined from different sites,different sub-regions and different socio-economical levels by using the uncertainty analysis method.

Mots clés : Climate change and Human activity ;Water deficit/surplus ;Circulation index ;Multiple linear regression model ;Extreme drought and wet events ;

Présentation (CNKI)