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Lanzhou University of Technology (兰州理工大学) 2021

Analysis and Prediction of Reference Crop Evapotranspiration in Gansu Province Based on Climatic Regionalization

马静

Titre : Analysis and Prediction of Reference Crop Evapotranspiration in Gansu Province Based on Climatic Regionalization

Auteur : 马静

Grade : Master 2021

Université : Lanzhou University of Technology (兰州理工大学)

Résumé partiel
Reference crop evapotranspiration ET0 is an important scientific basis for reasonable customization of irrigation schedule,adjustment of regional planting structure,rational allocation of water resources and irrigation management planning.Accurate estimation of reference crop evapotranspiration is not only the basis of obtaining crop water demand and production management,but also the key to the development of efficient water-saving agriculture.According to the geographical characteristics and the degree of dry and wet in Gansu Province.Gansu Province is divided into four regions:Longnan Gannan humid area,South Central and South Gansu semi humid area,middle north semi-arid area and Hexi arid area,Based on the daily meteorological observation data of 26 meteorological stations in Gansu Province from 1980 to 2015,the daily,annual and multi-year ET0 were calculated by FAO-56 penman Monteith equation.The spatial and temporal variation characteristics of ET0,the spatial distribution of meteorological elements and the influence of meteorological elements on ET0 were analyzed by inverse distance weighted spatial interpolation(IDW)and partial correlation analysis ;FAO-56 was used Penman Monteith equation combined with monthly average data of meteorological factors such as average temperature,maximum temperature,minimum temperature,net radiation,relative humidity and wind speed in2021-2080 under RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios of CMIP5 global climate model and inverse distance weight interpolation method,the average ET0 of Gansu Province in the next 60 years under climate change scenario was calculated and its spatial-temporal distribution characteristics were analyzed ;Based on the meteorological data of 26 stations in Gansu Province,the daily,monthly,annual and multi-year ET0 of each station were calculated by using five simplified methods,i.e.Hargreaves method(HS),FAO-24 penman method,Priestley Taylor method,FAO 1948 penman method and makkink method-Monteith method was used as the standard,and other simplified methods were evaluated by determination coefficient R2,mean deviation(MBE),root mean square error(RMSE)and mean relative error(MRE).

Mots clés : Reference Crop Evapotranspiration ;Temporal and Sspatial Distribution ;Influencing Factors ;Prediction;Applicability ;Gansu Province ;

Présentation (CNKI)

Page publiée le 19 mars 2022