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Istituto Agronomico Mediterraneo di Bari (IAMB) 2021

Calibration and evaluation of a prediction model for Ceratitis capitata in Egypt

Fahmy, Salma Mostafa Anwar

Titre : Calibration and evaluation of a prediction model for Ceratitis capitata in Egypt

Auteur : Fahmy, Salma Mostafa Anwar

Etablissement de soutenance : Istituto Agronomico Mediterraneo di Bari (IAMB) - Centre international de hautes études agronomiques méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)

Grade : Master of science : Precision Integrated Pest Management (IPM) for fruit and vegetable crops 2021

Résumé
A physiology-based demographic modelling framework was adapted to model the population dynamics of the life stages of Ceratitis Capitata, the Mediterranean fruit fly. The model was calibrated using the Marquardt-Levenberg algorithm with data collected from the literature on the insect’s biodemography as a function of temperature. Model calibration led to the selection of Medfly pre-imaginal stages development and mortality functions showing the highest goodness-of-fit. Lactin-2 function was used to represent the developmental rate of all pre-imaginal stages, Wang-2 function for the mortality rate of the egg and larval stages, and the quadratic function to represent pupal stage mortality. The calibrated model provided the percentage of the population of each life stage to the total population of each Medfly generation and its progression over time. The model was validated by comparing its predicted adult stage peak time with that of field samples of the adult population from different regions in northern and central Egypt, both collected for this research work and derived from published sources. Validation showed that the model needs to be further tuned to allow for improved accuracy in predicting the peak time of the different adult generations. The model was compared to an empirical degree-day model, the PBDM model, which was found to be more accurate.

Présentation (IAMB Library)

Page publiée le 31 mars 2022