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Bahir Dar University (2019)

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON DROUGHT AND ITS IMPLICATIONS ON AGRICULTURE IN EASTERN AMHARA REGION, ETHIOPIA.

GASHAYE DIRESS

Titre : EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON DROUGHT AND ITS IMPLICATIONS ON AGRICULTURE IN EASTERN AMHARA REGION, ETHIOPIA.

Auteur : GASHAYE DIRESS

Université de soutenance : Bahir Dar University

Grade : MASTER OF SCIENCE IN CLIMATE CHANGE AND DEVELOPMENT 2019

Résumé
Climate change has the potential to alter drought characteristics. As Ethiopia is vulnerable to recurrent droughts and dependent on rain–fed subsistence agriculture, estimation of drought characteristics under the changing climate provide information to prepare in advance for appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies. The general objective of the study was to analyze the impacts of climate change on droughts and the implications on agriculture in eastern Amhara region, Ethiopia. To predict future precipitation and temperature in A2 and B2 emission scenario and HadCM3 model, statistical down-scaling methods was used. In addition, using R software, standardized precipitation evapo-transpiration index for one, three, and six-month time scale was used to analyze drought characteristics. The non-parametric Mann-Kendal test was used to analyze trends of projected precipitation, temperature and drought frequency, severity and duration in two-emission scenario and periods. The spatial variability of drought frequency, duration and severity in the study area has been interpolated by inverse distance weighted method using the spatial analyst tool of ArcMap. Most of the studied stations (88.9%) experienced an increment in mean maximum daily and annual temperature while the mean minimum daily and annual temperature was increased by 44.4% stations in both scenario and periods. The mean monthly, annual and seasonal precipitation indicated that there would be temporally and spatially variability in the study area. Meteorological drought frequency, duration and severity, would be expected to increase in most station than agricultural droughts. The Mann-Kendal test showed significant increasing trends in temperature and drought frequency, duration and severity of most stations. In addition, interpolated drought maps indicated that most parts of the study area would be exposed to frequent, sever, and long droughts in 2050s of both scenarios. In conclusion, as compared to the base period drought is projected to be worse in most parts of the study area. These imply that agriculture is expected to be in stress by frequent and severe droughts for the coming periods. Because this study used single climate model and drought threshold level for all station, we recommended further study using multiple climate models and threshold levels

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