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UK Research and Innovations (2016)

The economic impact of El Niño related floods and drought on small and medium enterprises in Botswana, Kenya and Zambia

El Niño Impact Floods Drought

Titre : The economic impact of El Niño related floods and drought on small and medium enterprises in Botswana, Kenya and Zambia

Pays/Région : Botswana, Kenya and Zambia

Durée : avr. 16 - avr. 18

Référence projet : NE/P004784/1
Catégorie : Research Grant

Résumé partiel
The proposed research will assess the impacts of and responses to extreme drought (Botswana and Zambia) and floods (Kenya) associated with the 2015-16 El Niño (EN) and subsequent rainy season. The aim is to examine the economic consequences for small and medium enterprises (SME) as they are affected by : water supply disruption in Botswana’s capital Gaborone due to drought ; extreme flooding in Kenya ; and disruption in Zambia’s electricity supply due to reduced hydropower production caused by low reservoir levels. The project is a partnership between the Grantham Research Institute (London School of Economics), the African Collaborative Centre for Earth System Science (University of Nairobi), the Botswana Institute for Technology Research and Innovation and the University of Barotseland (Zambia). African SME are seen as crucial for growth and prosperity, yet they face numerous challenges, including climate-related disruption to essential activities. However, these impacts are often poorly documented and the evidence base of economic impact is very sparse. This research is timely and urgent ; in all three cases there is a need for real-time/rapid assessment as retrospective studies suffer from recall bias.

The study is designed to start in April 2016 and track impacts and response through to February 2017 to make repeat surveys of EN impacts, institutional response and learning. We identify three main objectives ; 1) To document the hydrological impacts and water resource management response during and after the 2015-16 EN. 2) To assess the recent and ongoing socio-economic impacts of EN-induced disruption and mitigation responses in SME. 3) To examine factors affecting risk perceptions and behavioural change during a period of extreme climate disruption. All three objectives concern important knowledge gaps and are also designed to generate evidence and novel insights that can inform policy and practice to support more effective climate risk management.

The project aims to make a difference through academic papers for disciplinary (hydrology, climatology) and interdisciplinary environmental journals. We will also make presentations at relevant national and regional fora and present key insights to disaster management agencies. We will explore opportunities to scale-up outputs through joint collaborations (workshops, events) with other projects supported by this call.

Lead Research Organisation : London School of Economics & Pol Sci

Financement : Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)
Budget  : £266 660

UK Research and Innovations

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