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Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina (2021)

Análisis de sequías usando series sintéticas en la cuenca del río Mantaro

Cairampoma Amaro, José Antonio

Titre : Análisis de sequías usando series sintéticas en la cuenca del río Mantaro

Auteur : Cairampoma Amaro, José Antonio

Université de soutenance : Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina

Grade : Magister Scientiae - Recursos Hídricos 2021

Drought is a complex phenomenon that is characterized by few correlated random variables ; the calculation of its occurrence based on univariate analysis cannot account for significant correlations between the variables. Therefore, the objective of the research was to characterize the drought events in the Mantaro river basin under the bivariate approach. For which monthly precipitation data from 43 meteorological stations grouped in four homogeneous zones were used : Upper, Lower, Middle East and Middle West basin. The methodology considered the analysis of the homogeneity and trends of the series, the application of the Box-Jenkins method, for autoregressive models of moving averages, in order to generate 500 years of synthetic series, the calculation of the standardized precipitation index for droughts short-term (SPI-3) and Long-term (SPI-12), identification of variables, the period between droughts, duration, severity and intensity. Univariate and bivariate analysis and finally the calculation of the univariate and bivariate return period. As a result, four validated synthetic series of monthly precipitation were obtained (RMSE <27.59 ; R2> 72.9% ; r> 85.4%), the most appropriate distribution functions for the four variables under study were Generalized Pareto, Weibull, Log Normal and Pearson. Similarly, the most suitable copula was Clayton and Frank. For the SPI-3 it was found that moderate events have a disjunctive bivariate return period of less than 10 years in the Lower Basin, Middle East Basin and Middle West Basin, however, for the Upper Basin moderate events have a return period under 20 years of age, concluding that moderate drought events are more prevalent in the Lower and Middle Basin than in the Upper Basin. Likewise, for the SPI-12, it was found that the disjunctive bivariate return periods of these events have an occurrence of less than 20 years in the Lower Basin and the Middle East Basin, however, the occurrence of these events is greater than 20 years for the Midwest basin and the upper basin, suggesting that severe events are more likely to occur in the lower and middle eastern basin. While for extreme events there are no differences


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Page publiée le 18 novembre 2022