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Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina (2022)

Cambio climático y calidad del agua de la parte baja del río Lurín, empleando el sistema Aquatool

Osorio Díaz, Kátherine Jeannette

Titre : Cambio climático y calidad del agua de la parte baja del río Lurín, empleando el sistema Aquatool

Auteur : Osorio Díaz, Kátherine Jeannette

Université de soutenance : Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina

Grade : Magister Scientiae - Recursos Hídricos 2022

Résumé
Lurin’s river basin, a coastal arid basin, hinders water resources management in quantity and quality, affecting the development of its main economic activities : agriculture and cattle. Climate change effects on water quality in basin’s lower zone under different scenarios to 2020-2050, were analyzed. The statistical downscaling of precipitation and temperature projections of six global climate models (GCM) from the CMIP5, under three representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) together with geographic information, were TETIS distributed hydrological model’s inputs ; then, the projected river flow outputs were entered into AQUATOOL’s system modules to get projected water quality under different scenarios. By 2020-2050, it is expected in the lower and middle basin’s zones that : rainfall would increase (94-472 mm), temperature would increase until 3 °C and evapotranspiration would decrease (988-1191 mm and 1036-1311 mm in comparison with historical data 985- 1203 mm and 1111-1243 mm, respectively). In the projected annual river flow in the middle zone, an increase is expected mainly at dry period (with historical data 0,2-2,8 m3 /s) with values for : RCP 2.6, from 0,4 to 11,4 m3 /s ; RCP 4.5, from 0,4 to 11,9 m3 /s and RCP 8.5, from 0,4 to 11,1 m3 /s. Furthermore, the closer to the river mouth you get, the lower is the water quality during the year due to the higher number of pollution dumpings ; besides, the most critical period would be july-september because it has the lower projected river flow among the year. However, in comparison to the historical data (2018-2019), downstream projected water quality would show an improvement thanks to the increased river flow at dry period, with maximum variations at : DO, of 4 mg/l ; BOD5, of -386 mg/l (RCP 2.6) ; E. coli, of -9,3x104 CFU/100 ml (RCP 4.5) ; thermotolerant coliforms, of -3,3x105 NMP/100 ml and total coliforms, of -1,8x106 NMP/100 ml (RCP 8.5) ; but without satisfying environmental quality standards for vegetable irrigation and cattle drinking water

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Page publiée le 18 novembre 2022