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Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina (2021)

Efecto del cambio climático en la oferta hídrica del río Lurín

Osorio Díaz, Kátherine Jeannette

Titre : Efecto del cambio climático en la oferta hídrica del río Lurín

Auteur : Osorio Díaz, Kátherine Jeannette

Université de soutenance : Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina

Grade : Ingeniero Agrícola 2021

Lurín river basin´s arid climate and scarce hydrometeorological information, hinders water resources management and development of its main economic activities : agriculture and cattle. Due to this, the present research evaluated the climate change effects in the Lurín river flow under different scenarios to 2100. Precipitation and temperature were projected for near (2020-2050) and far future (2051-2100) under three representative concentration pathways from six global climatic models, using statistical downscaling with error correction by delta change, scaling and distribution mapping ; then, projected evapotranspiration was estimated by Hargreaves method, and the river flow was projected by TETIS distributed hydrological model, previously calibrated and validated. The annual precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration for the near future was in the range of 94 to 845 mm, of 13 to 22 °C and of 942 to 1452 mm, respectively ; and for the far future, of 95 to 974 mm, of 13 to 26 °C and of 812 to 1643 mm, respectively. It is expected that annual projected river flow for near and far future in the basin’s upper area, decreases (river flows of 0,3 to 9,4 m3 /s and of 0,3 to 14,3 m3 /s, respectively) ; in the middle area, increases (river flows of 0,7 to 30,2 m3 /s and of 0,7 to 45,8 m3 /s, respectively) and in the lower area, both trends (river flows of 0,7 to 32,5 m3 /s and of 0,7 to 49,3 m3 /s, respectively). In the basin’s upper area, it was observed river flow decrease during the dry (May-September) and wet period (October-April) of 0,1 to 3,4 m3 /s and of 0,2 to 12,2 m3 /s, respectively ; however, in the middle and lower basin’s areas, it was observed a higher river flow increase during the dry period of 0,3 to 13,6 m3 /s and of 0,4 to 16,0 m3 /s, respectively.


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