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Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina (2022)

Severidad y riesgo de sequía del Río Chancay, Lambayeque, Perú

Bustamante Scaglioni, Erle Otto Javier

Titre : Severidad y riesgo de sequía del Río Chancay, Lambayeque, Perú

Auteur : Bustamante Scaglioni, Erle Otto Javier

Université de soutenance : Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina

Grade : Magister Scientiae - Recursos Hídricos 2022

Résumé
The drought deficits of the water volumes of the Chancay Lambayeque River for the period 1970-2019, often occur each year with a certain severity and risk of exposure to the demand for water for population and agricultural use. The uncertainty of the frequency and time period of the lack of water exceed is present. The objective of this study was to estimate the severity and risk of drought in the Chancay Lambayeque river, with water demands of 927.65 MMC, 1036.78 MMC. 1091.35 MMC and 1255.05 MMC. Drought deficits of 1,2, 3 and 4 years duration were identified based on runs or runs of the observed and synthetic series, after selecting a time series model of moving average MA (1) for the forecast of the long-term annual volumes. Finally, with the sequence of dry and wet years as the generated drought deficits, they were adjusted to a bivariate probability distribution and the return period and the risk of droughts were obtained. The risk that exceeds the oneyear drought deficits is 483.6110 MMC (0.26% - 0.85%) ; 269.0863 MMC (0.98% - 2.3%) ; 206.2540 MMC (1.42% - 2.99%) ; 59.3485 MMC (3.37% - 5.00%) ; and 19.4640 MMC (4.19% - 5.45%). The probabilistic models of the moving average and the bivariate distribution of drought were valid to estimate the drought deficit of one year and are subject to an adequate identification of the droughts associated with the periodicity of the water demand.

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Page publiée le 18 novembre 2022