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Accueil du site → Doctorat → États-Unis → 2020 → Chad : Human Fertility, Crop Production and Changing Weather Patterns

University of New Mexico (2020)

Chad : Human Fertility, Crop Production and Changing Weather Patterns

Organ, Jake

Titre : Chad : Human Fertility, Crop Production and Changing Weather Patterns

Auteur : Organ, Jake

Université de soutenance : University of New Mexico

Grade : Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) Economics 2020

Résumé
The subject of this dissertation is the effect of changing weather patterns on human fertility in Chad, Sahelian Africa. There is a body of literature on the effect of extreme weather events-usually associated with large-scale mortality-and human fertility. However, there is less of a body of literature on the effects of less extreme changing weather patterns and human fertility. Chad has known substantial warming since the late 1960s, hence I use rising heat as a proxy for changing weather patterns. Using GIS-coded fertility and weather data, I look for correlations between the birth rate and the number of days in a month above 31 degrees Celsius, while partitioning data by climatic zone and by level of staple crop intensity. I then run the same models with sorghum and millet (Chadian staple crops) as the dependent variables. I find a general pattern that the same planting season high temperature days that have a negative effect on the birth rate, also have a negative effect on both sorghum and millet yields that is driven by the Sahel region. This accords with my adapted Beckerian theoretical model, but there are other more ambiguous results.

Mots clés : Chad, Becker, Weather, Sahel, Fertility, Demographics

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Page publiée le 13 décembre 2022