Informations et ressources scientifiques
sur le développement des zones arides et semi-arides

Accueil du site → Master → Afrique du Sud → 2022 → Modelling future land-use change and assessing resultant streamflow responses : a case study of two diverse Southern African catchments.

University of KwaZulu-Natal (2022)

Modelling future land-use change and assessing resultant streamflow responses : a case study of two diverse Southern African catchments.

Moodley, Kimara.

Titre : Modelling future land-use change and assessing resultant streamflow responses : a case study of two diverse Southern African catchments.

Auteur : Moodley, Kimara.

Université de soutenance : University of KwaZulu-Natal

Grade : Master of Science in Environmental Science 2022

Résumé partiel
Land-use and land cover (LULC) is a crucial constitute of the terrestrial ecosystem, impacting on numerous fundamental processes and characteristics such as land productivity, geomorphological process and the hydrological cycle. Assessing the hydrological impacts of land-use and land cover changes (LULCCs) has become one of many challenges in hydrological research. LULCCs modify hydrological processes such as evapotranspiration, infiltration and interception, consequently impacting on the hydrological regimes of a catchment. Understanding the implications of LULCCs on catchment hydrology is therefore fundamental for effective water resource planning and management, and land-use planning. Globally, numerous studies have documented the impacts of LULCCs on catchment hydrology, however in Southern Africa there exists a knowledge gap on the impacts of LULCCs on catchment hydrology, specifically future land-use and land cover change (LULCC). Therefore, the aim of this study was to simulate potential future land-use within two diverse South African catchments using an appropriate land-use change model and thereafter to assess streamflow responses to these future land-use scenarios using the ACRU hydrological model. Future land-use was simulated utilizing the Cellular Automata Markov (CA-Markov) model. The CA-Markov model is a hybrid land-use change model that integrates Markov chain, CA, Multi-Objective Land Allocation (MOLA) and Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) concepts. CA-Markov simulated future land-use through the creation of conditional probability and transition probability matrices, suitability images and the utilization of a CA contiguity filter and socio-economic and biophysical drivers of LULCC. The results illustrated that within both catchments, increasing growth of anthropogenically driven LULC classes such as urban, agroforestry and agrarian areas inevitability contribute to the fragmentation, modification and deterioration of natural land-cover types. The model’s reliability and capability was assessed by running a validation, which was conducted by simulating changes between t1 (1990) and t2 (2013/14) to predict for t3 (2018).

Présentation

Version intégrale (6,9 Mb)

Page publiée le 4 janvier 2023