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İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi (2015)

Mapping drought hazard using SPI index and GIS Case study : Fars province, Iran

BAGHERI Fatemeh

Titre : Mapping drought hazard using SPI index and GIS Case study : Fars province, Iran

Kuraklık tehlike haritalarının SPI indisi ve CBS kullanılarak oluşturulması Pilot çalışma : Fars vilayeti, İran

Auteur : BAGHERI Fatemeh

Université de soutenance : İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi

Grade : Master of Science (MS) 2015

Résumé partiel
Drought is one of the main natural hazards affecting the economy and the environment of large areas .Semi-arid and arid regions worldwide regularly confront drought. Some of the potentially significant and far reaching consequences of drought include impacts on : poverty rates, health, ecosystem services, land sustainability, and economic development. Unfortunately, recent climate change models predict that over the next 40 years, semi-arid and arid regions worldwide will experience an increase in the severity and intensity of drought as these regions encounter more aridity and less precipitation. Most populated regions, especially in arid and semi-arid environments, are experiencing substantial conflicts over freshwater resources as governments try to meet agricultural and urban water demands and leave flows for the environment. And while the global supply of freshwater resources has been nearly constant for the last 2,000 years recent predictions from climate change models suggest less precipitation and hence further reductions in freshwater supplies in many of the already water-stressed semi-arid and arid regions worldwide, including parts of the Europe, Africa, Australia, and western United States. Important efforts for developing methodologies to quantify different aspects related to droughts have been made, such as the spatial differences in the drought hazard, the prediction of droughts by means of the use of atmospheric circulation indices and the mitigation of drought effects. However, more efforts have been made to develop drought indices, which allow an earlier identification of droughts, their intensity and surface extent. During the twentieth century, several drought indices were developed, based on different variables and parameters. Drought indices are very important for monitoring droughts continuously in time and space , and drought early warning systems are based primarily on the information that drought indices provideThe majority of drought indices have a fixed time scale. Some of them have many problems related to calibration and spatial comparability. To solve these problems, scientists developed other indices like the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI),which can be calculated at different time scales to monitor droughts in the different usable water resources.in recent years, Geographic information system (GIS) has played a key role in studying different types of hazards either natural or man-made. As well as, Iran is a dry land with very low atmospheric precipitation such that rainfall in Iran is less than one third of the average rainfall throughout the world.

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