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Accueil du site → Doctorat → Turquie → Modeling the effects of climate change on the distribution of tree formation in Kaz mount and its vicinity

Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart Üniversitesi (2018)

Modeling the effects of climate change on the distribution of tree formation in Kaz mount and its vicinity

HEPBİLGİN Berna

Titre : Modeling the effects of climate change on the distribution of tree formation in Kaz mount and its vicinity

Kazdağı ve yakın çevresinde ağaç formasyonunun dağılışına iklim değişikliğinin olası etkilerinin modellenmesi

Auteur : HEPBİLGİN Berna

Université de soutenance : Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart Üniversitesi

Grade : Doktora Tezi 2018

Résumé
Climate change is one of the most important environmental problems of our time, threatening the lives of all living things. Climate change can be detected more realistically with high-resolution regional climate models, and research is improved to predict the adverse effects of climate change on natural and social environment. The aim of this thesis is to apply the high-resolution regional climate model output produced in Turkey in the recent period to the fieldwork, a mountainous area, and to relate the obtained changes to vegetation. It is expected that the results of the research will contribute to the sustainability and planning studies of the forest of Kaz Mount and the accumulation of scientific knowledge in the area. The study is based on observational data for the 1971-2000 reference period and annual mean temperature and annual mean total rainfall data for the forecast periods of 2016-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2099. The basic and simple Schreiber method was applied for annual mean total rainfall modeling. In the reference period, rainfall is between 488-1586 mm ; According to the RCP 4.5 scenario, in the next three periods, 488-1586 mm, 406-1580 mm, 325-1585 mm ; According to the RCP 8.5 scenario, 575-1619 mm, 627-1708 mm and 620-1730 mm respectively are projected. According to the Erinç classification, the semi-arid areas expanded as the humid areas narrowed. The semi-arid Mediterranean climate area of the Emberger model is considerably and low-rainy Mediterranean climate area is partially shrinking, while the rainy Mediterranean climate area has expanded. In the De-Martonne model, the semi-arid climatic zone expanded while the semi-humid, humid and very humid areas were shrinking. According to the Erinç classification, in the hygrophilous, transition, pure oak, mixed oak and xerophyte formation, the humid and very humid climate field narrows for both scenarios, while the semi-humid area expands. The rainy Mediterranean climate area is predominant in the forecast periods ; the low rainy Mediterranean climate area has also expanded in the last period for Emberger. Semi, low and arid climate areas are expanding when humid are shrinking in all formations but the hygrophilous for De-Martonne.

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Page publiée le 1er janvier 2023