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İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi (2021)

High flow, low flow and drought characteristics of Küçük Menderes river basin

SARIGİL Gökhan

Titre : High flow, low flow and drought characteristics of Küçük Menderes river basin

Küçük Menderes havzasının yüksek akım, düşük akım ve kuraklık özellikleri

Auteur : SARIGİL Gökhan

Université de soutenance : İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi

Grade : M.Sc. THESIS 2021

Résumé partiel
Water plays an important role in all living life. The importance of water in many areas such as the ecosystem, agriculture, livestock or industrial production has not changed from the past to the present, despite technological advances. Unfortunately, climate change, which is a natural occurrence in the world, and its consequences have accelerated due to anthropogenic activities, which has led to stress on water resources. Today, climate change and the resulting water deficit pose a great risk to societies, especially to those living in arid and semi-arid regions. In addition, due to the rapid growth of the world’s population, the available water for human consumption is decreasing both in terms of resources and quality. According to the United Nations World Bank High Level Panel on Water (HLPW) final report, it is predicted that half of the world’s population will be affected by the stress caused by water scarcity as of 2050, and 700 million people will be displaced by 2030 due to water scarcity. In light of all these considerations, climate change, drought, changes in river regimes and the consequences of drought on the ecosystem have been investigated under various disciplines. The increasing risks of water scarcity have also led to the development of new research methods and an increasing number of research papers. This study aims to examine critical dry periods and determine the high- and low-flow characteristics of the Küçük Menderes River Basin in western Turkey by using a variety of tools such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), flow duration curves, percentiles obtained from the flow duration curves, and the D-day low flows. In addition, the study uses frequency analysis to derive frequency curves for the percentiles and the D-day low flows. In the study, precipitation and streamflow data obtained from 13 meteorological stations and 5 gauging stations, respectively, were analyzed. Also, the Mann-Kendall trend test was applied on the SPI, percentiles, and D-day low flow time series to check the existence of a trend. Drought analysis was carried out using the SPI time series obtained from 13 meteorological stations in the river basin and its surroundings. SPI was calculated for k = 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24-month time scales, and the calculated SPIk time series were visualized in graphs. To make the graphs easier to interpret, the thresholds at the levels of the moderate, severe, and extreme drought were plotted on the graphs. In addition, the longest dry periods were determined for each station and time scale. It was found that the determined dry periods were compatible between stations. Since the SPI values at the 12- and 24-month time scales represent hydrological drought, the informations obtained by SPI12 and SPI24 were also used to interpret the results of the streamflow analysis. The Mann-Kendall trend test was used on each time scale of SPI series to determine their trends. However, due to the differences in the record periods of the meteorological stations, both positive and negative trends were seen as a result of the Mann-Kendall trend test in the river basin. It is thought that the reason for this situation is the noncommon recording period of the gauges. The indices calculated using the streamflow or the precipitation data with common record periods demonstrate the same direction of a trend. This helped us to interpret the flow indices despite the limited length of the data

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Page publiée le 7 janvier 2023