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Erciyes Üniversitesi (2022)

Modelling climate change impacts at Altinapa reservoir watershed

DILIBAIER Aibaidula

Titre : Modelling climate change impacts at Altinapa reservoir watershed

İklim değişikliğinin Altınapa baraj gölü havzası üzerindeki etkilerinin modellenmesi

Auteur : DILIBAIER Aibaidula

Université de soutenance : Erciyes Üniversitesi

Grade : Doktora Tezi 2022

Résumé
Climate change can have severe impacts on water availability and quality in semi-arid regions. Turkey, located in the Mediterranean region, is among the countries vulnerable to climate change. In this study, the main objective was to assess the impact of climatic changes on water quantity and quality at the Altınapa Reservoir Watershed, located in the Konya province. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to model streamflow, reservoir volume, and water quality. To obtain reliable model results during model calibration/validation, we compared the performance of four calibration and uncertainty analysis algorithms (Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2), Parameter Solution (ParaSol), Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE), and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO)) available in the SWAT-CUP program. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), determination coefficient (R2), p-factor, and r-factor were used as the comparison criteria and the SUFI-2 was found to be the most feasible technique for model calibration and validation. In SWAT hydrologic model, the watershed was delineated into 18 subbasins and 159 hydrological response units. The model was calibrated and validated for streamflow, sediment, and total nitrogen and used for investigating the possible changes in streamflow, reservoir storage and water quality in the future. Climate projection data were obtained from GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, MPI-ESM-MR global circulation models under two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the 2021-2098 period. Results show that upward trends in air temperatures are expected under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. According to the HadGEM2-ES model, precipitation, streamflow, and reservoir storage showed a downward trend from 2021 to 2098, while GFDL-ESM2M and MPI-ESM-MR models projected upward trends in these parameters under the RCP4.5 scenario and downward trends under the RCP8.5 scenario. Precipitation, streamflow, and reservoir storage predictions of GFDL-ESM2M and MPI-ESM-MR models were considerably lower than those observed in the basin in recent decades, which show that water resources will decrease in the future. Sediment and total nitrogen transport to the Altınapa Reservoir will be variable, with both upward and downward trends, during the 2021-2098 period under the RCP4.5 scenario. Both sediment and total nitrogen transport would decrease during the 2070-2098 period under the RCP 8.5 scenario, which is parallel to downward trends expected in streamflow during the same time period.

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Page publiée le 2 janvier 2023