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Accueil du site → Doctorat → Afrique du Sud → 2021 → An assessment of the impacts of climate change/ variability and land use-land cover changes on surface runoff in the upper Mzingwane subcatchment, Zimbabwe

University of the Witwatersrand (2021)

An assessment of the impacts of climate change/ variability and land use-land cover changes on surface runoff in the upper Mzingwane subcatchment, Zimbabwe

Maviza, Auther

Titre : An assessment of the impacts of climate change/ variability and land use-land cover changes on surface runoff in the upper Mzingwane subcatchment, Zimbabwe

Auteur : Maviza, Auther

Université de soutenance : University of the Witwatersrand

Grade : Doctor of Philosophy, 2021

Résumé partiel
Climate change is one the most topical subjects in today’s world. Numerous studies have linked climate to increased incidence and severity of impacts of natural hazards such as droughts, floods and wildfires. To this end, climate science research has been and still continues to be one of the most active areas of scientific enquiry in a quest to better understand climate systems dynamics and more recently their interlink with other systems. In this study, the climate and land use –landcover change dynamics are explored and then their impacts on surface hydrological conditions in the upper Mzingwane subcatchment (UMS) of Zimbabwe assessed. Initially, an in-depth review of existing climate and hydrology published research in Zimbabwe over the past 29 years is undertaken using a systematic review approach. It emerged that of the 107 studies reviewed, the two predominant themes covered were climate impact (39%) and climate vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation (39%) while climate and hydrological modelling were the least covered themes at4%. Most of the research is outdated in Zimbabwe and has limited use of more recent climate and hydrological modelling tools and techniques. With regards to landscape degradation, historical land use and landcover changes and modelled future land use and landcover scenarios in UMS were explored the using Geographic Information Systems and Remote Sensing. It emerged that extensive deforestation has been taking place in the UMS with losses of over 700km2 between 1089 and 2018 and this trend is projected to continue into the future with over 40% of forest cover lost by 2038. These changes are most likely to be driven by increased human activities in the area especially small-scale and illegal gold mining. To better understand historical precipitations conditions in the UMS, climate station historical precipitation records are used to assess twentieth century climate extreme events over UMS.

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