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University of Pretoria (2021)

Effects of droughts and animal diseases on smallholder farmers’ participation in the South African beef market

Nsakilwa, Musowe

Titre : Effects of droughts and animal diseases on smallholder farmers’ participation in the South African beef market

Auteur : Nsakilwa, Musowe

Université de soutenance : University of Pretoria

Grade : MSc Agric (Agricultural Economics) 2021

Résumé partiel
There is global recognition that climate variability and its impacts are affecting most aspects of our lives, and frequently. Climate variability includes aspects like rising global temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and elevated carbon levels in the atmosphere. Some of the climate variability impacts are observed with the regularity of incidences of drought and animal disease. These occurrences affect smallholder farmers and the vulnerable members of society. Most rural households depend on agriculture and are primarily involved in livestock production. There are 1.3 billion people in the world who depend on the livestock sector, which uses 45 percent of the planet’s land surface. As a result, livestock marketing is crucial for agricultural transformation and economic development, especially in developing countries. Livestock marketing alleviates poverty in agricultural households, while also allowing smallholder farmers to commercialize their operations. In South Africa, 80 percent of agricultural land is ideal for extensive grazing, with a total beef herd of 13.69 million animals. However, smallholder farmers, despite owning 40 percent of the total cattle herd in South Africa, have a low market participation rate, with only a 5 percent offtake rate. Drought and animal disease outbreaks have been linked to regional differences in cattle offtake rates in the literature. This study used data from a four-wave panel survey of 2,534 South African livestock owners to provide empirical evidence on the effects of drought, animal diseases, and the combined impact of both drought and animal diseases on smallholder farmers’ market participation. Since market participation is a binary response variable, the discrete choice logit model was chosen for this analysis. The pooled model, the fixed effects model, and the random-effects model were all examined. The random effects parameter was found to be accurate by the likelihood ratio test ; as a result, the random-effects model was more consistent than the pooled model was. The panel structure of the data and the disaggregation of smallholder farmers by province were not considered by the pooled model. Provincial effects accounted for 17.03 percent of the overall residual variance, reflecting a marginal but significant relationship between consumer participation and region.

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Page publiée le 10 janvier 2023