Informations et ressources scientifiques
sur le développement des zones arides et semi-arides

Titre : Considerations of long term enterprise selection for the water scarce Little Karoo area

Auteur : Ehlers, Jandre

Université de soutenance : Stellenbosch University

Grade : Master of Science (MScAgric) 2022

Résumé partiel
With the current drought and predicted drier future climate conditions for the Little Karoo, it is imperative to find crops that have a high water use efficiency while providing sufficient income. Understanding the future climate and its influences on agriculture production in the Little Karoo area is an important factor to consider when discussing alternative water use efficient crops. According to models, historical and current data on climate change and excessive greenhouse gasses it is predicted that rainfall in the Little Karoo will decrease in the coming decades. This decrease in rainfall is paired with an increase in extreme weather patterns leading to more frequent droughts with higher intensity and longer duration. The different crop industries and morphologies was analysed to determine their responses to a more arid and hotter growing environment. The crops used in the study is best suited for a Mediterranean climate, dry summers and mild/wet winters, as these types of crops will be best suitable for the Little Karoo. The crops used are apricots, almonds, peaches, olives, plums and wine grapes. The morphological aspects concluded that apricots and peaches can handle water deficits for a prolonged period the best, only requiring two thirds of full irrigation water and still delivering an almost full crop load. Whereas olives can cope the best with excessive heat. To determine the best suitable crop in terms of income generation to water use ratio, enterprise budgets were set up to determine the net income generated and paired with the individual water usage of each. Enterprise budget was used to determine the net profit, income minus cost (direct and indirect), of each crop used. The different crops have aspects that either promote or hinder the suitability. These aspects include labour requirement, season length, export or local usage, fresh or processed, density planted and mechanised or not. Income was determined by the Rand per kilogram of fruit.

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