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İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi (2020)

Assessing added value of wave coupling for the Mediterranean climate and extremes in regional earth system model simulations

BATIBENİZ Fulden

Titre : Assessing added value of wave coupling for the Mediterranean climate and extremes in regional earth system model simulations

Bölgesel yer sı̇stem modelı̇ sı̇mülasyonlarında Akdenı̇z ı̇klı̇mı̇ ve ekstremlerı̇ ı̇çı̇n dalga bı̇rleşı̇mı̇nı̇n katma değerı̇nı̇n belı̇rlenmesı̇

Auteur : BATIBENİZ Fulden

Université de soutenance : İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi

Grade : Doktora Tezi 2020

Résumé partiel
The Mediterranean Region and its climate have been a motivation for scientific and socio-economic environments due to its feature of being host to many European, Asian and African countries and its potential sensitivity to climate change. The characteristics of this region with semi-arid steppes, large water bodies and complex topographic features cause a heterogeneous distribution of primary climate variables. Therefore, water availability, the regional hydro-climate, extremes and human exposure would be the key challenges in this region with the effects of climate change. Given these possible problems, it is important to understand the current climate of the Mediterranean region, considering the air-sea interaction, large-scale climate variability and potential moisture sources. In this thesis, an extensive research has been conducted to establish an understanding towards the Mediterranean climate within the context of mid-latitude cyclones, precipitation moisture sources, wave activity and benefits of using coupled and standalone climate modeling approaches. We designed the thesis to answer three main science questions. First, we investigate precipitation dynamics over the Mediterranean region using an ensemble of four different reanalysis dataset. For this purpose, we used a Lagrangian based moisture back trajectory approach to understand the role of various oceanic and terrestrial moisture sources that contribute to the seasonal precipitation distribution over the Mediterranean Basin. Secondly, we performed standalone and coupled simulations with high and low resolution to assess the added value of using coupled models in producing the general climatology of the Med-CORDEX (Mediterranean - Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) region. Thirdly, a tropical- like storm (medicane) that is peculiar to Mediterranean, have been analyzed with the three high resolution coupled/uncoupled simulations to investigate the capturing ability of the coupled model in producing the main characteristics of these extreme events. We employ a Lagrangian based moisture back trajectory method on an ensemble of four reanalysis datasets to provide a comprehensive understanding of moisture sources over the Mediterranean land region (30°N to 49.5°N and 9.75°W to 61.5°E) at seasonal timescales for 1980 to 2013 period. Using a source region between 10°S to 71.35°N along the latitude and 80°W to 84.88°E along the longitude that is subdivided into ten complimentary sub-regions, our analyses is able to backtrack up to >90% of seasonal precipitation at each grid point within the target region. Our results indicate a significant role of moisture advected from the North Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea, and locally recycled moisture over the target region in shaping the spatial distribution of seasonal precipitation. However, a clear east-west contrast is witnessed in determining the relative importance of each of these major moisture sources where the North Atlantic dictates the moisture supply over the western Mediterranean while moisture from Mediterranean Sea and local recycling play a key role over the eastern Mediterranean.

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Page publiée le 9 janvier 2023