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Accueil du site → Master → Brésil → 2021 → Impactos na produtividade do feijão na região Nordeste do Brasil sob condições do cenário climático RCP 4.5

Universidade Federal de Alagoas (2021)

Impactos na produtividade do feijão na região Nordeste do Brasil sob condições do cenário climático RCP 4.5

Almeida, Thaywanne Novaes de

Titre : Impactos na produtividade do feijão na região Nordeste do Brasil sob condições do cenário climático RCP 4.5.

Impacts on edible beans yield in Northeastern Brazil under climate scenario conditions RCP 4.5

Auteur : Almeida, Thaywanne Novaes de

Université de soutenance : Universidade Federal de Alagoas

Grade : Mestrado em Meteorologia 2021

Résumé
Beans are a legume with agronomic variability, rich in nutrients and demanding in climatic conditions - rainfall and temperatures, in general, are the main meteorological variables that affect its development and productivity. In the Northeast Region of Brazil (NEB), the bean crop is one of the most practiced and important from a socioeconomic point of view, and most of the NEB territory is part of the semi-arid climate, characteristic of drought and prolonged droughts, factors that directly influence the yield of agricultural crops. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) points to a positive predominance of the increase in global average temperature over the next few years, which can be analyzed based on climate change scenarios. However, to analyze the impact of climate change on bean productivity in NEB, bean productivity data provided by IBGE from 1817 municipalities between 1974 and 2018 were used. Of these municipalities, it was possible to calibrate and validate the agrometeorological model in 73, as they presented reliable meteorological and productivity data, classified into three homogeneous groups (low, medium and high productivity). To generate regionalized future scenarios and assess the impacts of climate change on edible beans productivity, the statistical downscaling technique was used for the RCP4.5 scenario. Six global climate models that made up the fifth IPCC report were used : the Canadian CANESM2, the French CNRM-CM5 and IPSL-CM5A-MR, the American GFDLESM2M, the German MPI-ESMMR, and the Norwegian model NORESM1-MS. Through the models, the NEB areas that will have an impact on productivity were observed, based on the climatological period of simulations, for the years 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. The simulations indicated that most of the NEB producing municipalities will have their productivity reduced, as a direct consequence of the tendency of a significant reduction in accumulated precipitation, and of an increase in temperatures, which, therefore, will increase the potential evapotranspiration.

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