Informations et ressources scientifiques
sur le développement des zones arides et semi-arides

Accueil du site → Brèves → Brèves 2022 → Modeling study projects 21st century droughts will increase human migration

Modeling study projects 21st century droughts will increase human migration

Phys.org/news (APRIL 26, 2022)

Titre : Modeling study projects 21st century droughts will increase human migration

Drought and the potential increase in the number of droughts worldwide due to climate change remains a concern for scientists. A recent study led by Stony Brook University researchers suggests that human migration due to droughts will increase by at least 200 percent as we move through the 21st Century. Based on a series of both climate and social science modeling systems and other social science data, the study findings imply that migration may force the need to adjust sociopolitical policies to offset widespread human displacement in the future.

Phys.org/news (APRIL 26, 2022)

Présentation
According to lead author Oleg Smirnov, Ph.D., associate professor in the Department of Political Science at Stony Brook University, the research team worked from an ensemble of 16 climate models to generate drought projections for rest of the 21st Century. They centered on two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios : an optimistic one consistent with the Paris Agreement, and a pessimistic one based on current use of energy and greenhouse gas emissions.

It is important to note that while the Groundswell report assesses human migration projections due to climate change by 2050 in six world regions, this study analyzes potential drought-induced human migration around the entire world for the whole century going forward.

Source  : Stony Brook University

Annonce (Phys.org/news)

Page publiée le 16 janvier 2023