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Titre : Regional drought analysis on Konya province by using standardized precipitation index (SPI)

Standartlaştırılmış yağış indeksi (SYİ) yöntemi ile Konya ili bölgesel kuraklık analizi

Auteur : ATMACA Doğan

Université de soutenance : Gaziosmanpaşa Üniversitesi

Grade : Master of Science (MSc) 2011

Résumé
Drought is one of the most serious problems for human societies and ecosystems arising from climate fluctuations and variations. Although its impact does not come through sudden events, such as flood and storms, drought is one of the most damaging types of natural disasters over long periods. Global warming effect and the rise in the population of Turkey which has arid and semiarid climate and an erratic precipitation distribution in space and time, has increased demand to water much more than ever. Especially, supplying of water need is becoming more serious problem in drought periods. Therefore, effective use of water resources called renewable is very important. Konya province situated in central Anatolia region and called as one of the most drought regions in our counrty receives low rainfall. Especially summer rainfall is very limited and is not enough to remove water deficit resulted from increased temperature and evaporation. Therefore, this reasons impose to utilize water resources in the province optimally.In this study, regional drought analysis of Konya province was aimed by using l-moment algoritm and standardized precipitation index (SPI). For this pergose, the cumulative rainfall series at 3-, 6-, 9- and 12-month timescales by using monthly rainfalls from rainfall stations in Konya Province were firstly constituted for the regional analysis, the stations were formed initial homogeneous group(s) according to discordancy criteria considered l-moment ratios (l-coefficient of variation, l-coefficient of skewness and l-coefficient of kurtosis) belonging to the cumulative rainfall. There were the discordant stations when all of the rainfall stations as a whole region were taken into account and were divided into two groups. Therefore, the stations were formed as three groups. The heterogeneity measures (H1) showed that the selected groups were homogeneous. Based on the goodness of fit test measure, , the candidate regional distributions having the minimum ZDIST for the cumulative rainfall series were selected. The SPI values based on the candidate distributions were calculated. Generally, near normal and moderately drought kategories for rainfall series in the three sub-regions were dominant. Besides, to determine the change of rainfall series on sub-regions, Mann-Kendall test was applied to the cumulative series. Acording to the test, there was no trend for the series of the sub-regions.

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