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sur le développement des zones arides et semi-arides

Titre : Examination of possible effects of climate change on wheat growth and yield by a crop-climate simulation model

İklim değişikliğinin buğday bitkisinin gelişimi ve verimine olası etkilerinin bitki-iklim simulasyon modeli ile incelenmesi

Auteur : ÇAYLAK OSMAN

Université de soutenance : İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi

Grade : Master Meteorology 2015

Résumé partiel
As a main aim of many studies and discussions, the climate change is a popular phenomenon of overall agreement. According to the reports of Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), increases in greenhause gases released from various sources effect global average temperatures. This situation will change the world’s climate in micro, meso and macro scales. Planning the agricultural production and determining its future are very important issues from the past to the present for human life. Interactions between soil, crop and atmosphere are the most meaningful factors that influence the agricultural production. Among these factors, the most complex and undetermined factors are the uncontrollable meteorological parameters. As such, determining the variations in meteorological parametres can provide us directive ideas about the future aspect of agricultural production. There are various global researches about climate change as well as its current and possible effects on agriculture. Related to the present technological advances, crop-climate simulation models are widely used during these studies. These models are mathematical softwares developed for the analysis of the activities of agricultural systems. Agricultural management activities like seed quantity, fertilizing, etc. and meteorological parameters like temperature, humidity, solar radiation and precipitation are used as major model inputs. In this connection, main aim of this research study was to investigate the future yield of winter wheat (triticum aestivum L.) sown in the Kırklareli city of Turkey by considering possible climate change scenarios. With a 6650 km2 surface area and an agricultural area of 268311 ha, the Kırklareli city (41° 13’ N, 26° 54’ E, 203 m asl) takes part in northwestern part of Turkey-in the Thrace Region. Concordantly, winter wheat and sunflower are the main agricultural products. The CERES-Wheat Model, which is a part of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop-climate simulation modelling package was used as the simulation tool. Providing the World Meteorological Organisation’s (WMO) requirements, an automatic meteorological station was established on the selected winter wheat parcel in the Kırklareli Atatürk Soil Water and Agricultural Meteorology Research Station Directorate (KRK) Field. Meteorological station data together with the measurements on soil and crop have been used as model inputs and outputs. In this connection ; air temperature (average, maximum and minimum), relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction, total solar radiation, photosynthetically active radiation, net radiation, soil heat flux, soil water content, soil temperature, precipitation and surface temperature have been measured directly on cultivated plants. Furthermore ; plant height, biomass and leaf area index were measured at regular intervals.

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