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Titre : Trend analysis of temperature and precipitation data in the northern part of Libya

Kuzey Libya’da sıcaklık ve yağış verilerinin trend analizi

Auteur : SOLIMAN Mahmood Mohammed Mahmood

Université de soutenance : Karabük Üniversitesi

Grade : Doktora Tezi 2020

Résumé Partiel
The trend analysis is one of the important climate studies for detecting climate change in the short and long term. Climate change trend analysis can provide information on how climate has evolved to determine the changes and trends in climate elements over time. The importance of climate trend analysis studies is to estimate the risks of future climate changes based on current data and to try to avoid drought and lack of water resources by establishing sound scientific plans based on the results of these studies. The scope of the research subject entitled "Trend Analysis of Temperatures and Precipitation data in Northern part of Libya" extends to analysis of 16 meteorological stations, 8 of which are coastal stations, which are Agdabia, Benghazi, Derna, Misurata, Sirte, Tobruk, Tripoli, Zwara. And 5 of them are desert stations, which are Ghadames, Ghariat, Hon, Jaghboub, Jalo, and 3 mountain stations are Alfataiah, NALUT and SHAHAT. In order to perform trend analysis, the data must be at least 30 years old. The data for current analysis in most of the stations comprises of 40 years, from 1971 to 2010, except for Alfataiah Station (1981-2010) and Tobruk Station (1984-2010). The necessary data comprising 40-year continuous data were collected from Libyan National Meteorological center climate & climate Change, Tripoli. Microsoft Excel 2007 and IBM SPSS 23 program were used to organize the climate and other data and to create tables, graphs and figures for the data. Arc GIS 10.4 (Geography Information System) program was used to make the maps. Trend Analysis and Windows software and IBM SPSS 23 program were used to perform trends and other statistical analyzes. Descriptive statistics of the data were made in the statistical methods used within the scope of the study, Kolmogorov- Smirnov test for made normality distributions, and the data were not distributed normally. After the Kruskal-Wallis H test was used to determine the difference between the temperature and Precipitation, the correlation was determined using the Spearman Rho method for correlation analysis. For the trend analysis of 40-year temperature and precipitation data, trends directions were determined by Mann-Kendall, Spearman Rho, Sen test, Simple Linear Regression Analysis for temperatures. In maximum temperatures, it is observed that there are warming at western stations of the study area during the spring season and in most stations in the summer, and Sirte, Agdabia, Jalo and Hon stations in autumn. The winter season showed no significant trends in the maximum temperatures. However, the general average temperatures of the maximum temperatures have shown warming in all stations except for stations near Green Mountain and Zwara station in the west. In minimum temperatures, it is observed that there are warming at all stations in summer, except for Shahat station. In spring, while in the autumn season, all stations showed warming except for stations located on a high elevation, such as Nalut, Ghadames and Shahat.

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