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sur le développement des zones arides et semi-arides

Titre : Scenarios of Urban Growth in Kenya Using Regionalised Cellular Automata based on Multi temporal Landsat Satellite Data

Auteur : Mubea, Kenneth

Université de soutenance : Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn

Grade : Doktorgrades (Dr. rer. nat.) 2014

Résumé partiel
The exponential increase of urban areas in Africa during the last decade has become a major concern in the context of local climatic change and the increasing amount of impervious surface. Major African cities such as Nairobi and Nakuru have undergone rapid urban growth in comparison to the rest of the world. In this research we investigated the land-use changes and used the results in urban growth modelling which integrates cellular automata (CA), remote sensing (RS) and geographic information systems (GIS) in order to simulate urban growth up to the year 2030. We used multi-temporal Landsat imageries for the years 1986, 2000 and 2010 to map urban land-use changes in Nairobi and Nakuru. The use of multi-sensor imageries was also explored incorporating World view 2, and Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR) data for urban land-use mapping in Nakuru. We conducted supervised classification using support vector machine (SVM) which performed better than maximum likelihood classification. Land-use change estimates were obtained indicating increased urban growth into the year 2010. We used the land-use change analysis information to model urban growth in Nairobi and Nakuru. Our urban growth model (UGM) utilised various datasets in modelling urban growth namely urban land-use extracted from land-use maps, road network data, slope data and exclusion layer defining areas excluded from development. The Monte-Carlo technique was used in model calibration. The model was validated using Multiple Resolution Validation (MRV) technique. Prediction of urban land-use was done up to the year 2030 when Kenya plans to attain Vision 2030. Three scenarios were explored in the urban modelling process ; unmanaged growth with no restriction on environmental areas, managed growth with moderate protection, and a managed growth with maximum protection on forest, agricultural areas, and urban green

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