Informations et ressources scientifiques
sur le développement des zones arides et semi-arides

Titre : Research on Water Resources Carrying Capacity and Rational Allocation in Kubuqi Desert

Auteur : 卢方园

Grade : Master 2022

Université : Inner Mongolia Agricultural University

Résumé partiel
Water resources are an indispensable and important factor in the process of human production,life and economic development.Maintaining the sustainable development and utilization of water resources is a prerequisite for the implementation of human activities.Desert and arid areas are widely distributed in my country,usually accompanied by severe water resources problems,revealing the balance of water supply and demand in this region,the state of water resources carrying capacity,and in-depth research on the rational allocation of water resources,which are equally important for coordinating economic and social development and efficient use of water resources.It has certain practical reference significance.Aiming at the key scientific problems in the research on water resources carrying capacity and water resources allocation in arid regions,this paper takes the administrative region where the Kubuqi Desert is located as the main research area,and conducts research on the severe water resources pressure and ecological environment coercion situation faced by the region.,By establishing a three-dimensional ecological footprint model and a water footprint model,analyze the ecological footprint,water footprint and other indicators of the study area,and deeply understand the industrial structure and water consumption structure in the area ;calculate and evaluate the water resources carrying capacity in the study area,analyze Regional water resources carrying state ;on this basis,the multi-objective optimal allocation model is used to optimize the water resources allocation and seek the optimal solution.The main conclusions are as follows :（1）Using the three-dimensional ecological footprint model,it was concluded that the ecological footprint in the region from 1999 to 2019 showed an upward trend and was always far greater than the ecological carrying capacity,and the per capita ecological footprint of the energy account changed the most.The relative differences in ecological deficits within the study area gradually increased,and the dominant factor was energy land.The depth and breadth of the ecological footprint showed an upward trend,and the change of the footprint depth was obvious,increasing by 3.94 times.The degree of utilization of resources in the study area is becoming more and more sufficient,and the economic value is increasing,but the current capital stock is continuously consumed,and the capital flow cannot meet the needs of economic development in the region.（2）Calculate the water footprint of the Kubuqi Desert administrative area.The total water footprint is 2.6 times the physical water consumption.The agricultural water sector accounts for about 96% ;corn has the highest proportion of water footprint value among agricultural products,about 61%.The regional water availability cannot meet the actual demand,and the contradiction between supply and demand will increase with time.（3）Calculate the water resources carrying capacity and evaluate the level of water resources carrying capacity,and plan the changes of the water resources carrying capacity in the region under different paths.The results show that:under the guarantee rate of 75%,Zhungeer Banner can carry a population of 334,800 people in 2035 and an economy of129.902 billion yuan ;Dalat Banner can carry a population of 326,600 people in 2035 and an economy of 68.722 billion yuan ;Hangjin Banner can carry a population of 133,900 in 2035and an economy of 21.018 billion yuan.After the simulation,it was found that the study area was overloaded as a whole,and Hangjin Banner,Dalat Banner,and Zhungeer Banner were overloaded,overloaded,and critically overloaded,respectively.

Mots clés : Desert arid area ;Ecological footprint ;Water footprint ;Virtual water ;System dynamics ;Water resources carrying capacity ;

Présentation (CNKI)