Informations et ressources scientifiques
sur le développement des zones arides et semi-arides

Titre : Analysis and Prediction of Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Water and Soil Resources Carrying Capacity in Arid Water Lifting Irrigation Area

Auteur : 刘子金

Grade : Master 2022

Université : North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power

Résumé partiel
The arid desert area in Northwest China has dry climate,scarce rainfall and negative balance of soil moisture for a long time,which seriously restricts the evolution of local regional ecosystem and the change of water and soil environment.It is a typical fragile area of resources and environment in China.The establishment of artificial ecological oasis by means of water lifting irrigation has become a practical and effective way to realize the development and utilization of water and soil resources in arid desert areas.However,the outward injection of water resources is actually an artificial importation of the most sensitive impact factor-water-into the arid desert area.This driving process is impacted by the complexity,typicality and uniqueness of the soil and water resource background in the artificial oasis in the arid desert area,and its spatial and temporal differentiation process shows obvious multifactor participation,multi-level driving and multi-process coupling characteristics.With the population growth and economic development,the contradiction between the demand for soil and water resources and their constraint,scarcity and finiteness has been highlighted and intensified.How to achieve optimal spatial and temporal allocation of soil and water resources and green and sustainable development of soil and water resources under the "double carbon background" has become a prerequisite for exploring the balance mechanism between ecosystem protection and production demand in arid desert areas.In order to achieve the optimal spatial and temporal allocation of water and soil resources and the green and sustainable development of water and soil resources,it is necessary to clarify their intrinsic evolutionary mechanisms and spatial and temporal differentiation processes.However,due to the complex topography and diversified geomorphological units in the northwest arid desert region,the natural geographic differentiation between regions is obvious,and due to the influence of spatial movement of water resources and spatial fixity of land resources,the accurate revelation of the coupling mechanism and mutual feeder response process between them is still insufficient,and the medium and long-term resource carrying capacity prediction research in the context of coupled water and land resources still needs further exploration.In view of this,this paper takes Jingtai Chuan electric power irrigation area in Gansu Province as the research area and focuses on the key issue of the multi-scale coupling relationship between water and soil resources and their comprehensive spatio-temporal variation of carrying capacity in the context of water lifting and irrigation.The system dynamics,PSR model and multi-level fuzzy theory are introduced to analyze the system problem of water and soil resources carrying capacity of irrigation area with high order,multiple feedback and complex time variation.Long series monitoring,spatial telemetry,UAV aerial photography and economic and social data are assimilated and integrated to reveal the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of soil and water resources bearing factors and comprehensive bearing capacity in the irrigation area from three driving processes : geological and climatic driving,soil and water environmental driving and natural-human driving.

Mots clés : Jingdian Irrigation District ;Water and soil resources bearing status ;Analysis of spatial and temporal evolution ;Cloud Theory ;Cellular automata-Markov models ;Medium to long-term forecast ;

Présentation (CNKI)