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Accueil du site Doctorat États-Unis 2008 Using Coupled Modeling Approaches To Quantify Hydrologic Prediction Uncertainty And To Design Effective Monitoring Networks

** Titre : ** Using Coupled Modeling Approaches To Quantify Hydrologic Prediction Uncertainty And To Design Effective Monitoring Networks

**Auteur : ** Blainey Joan

**Université de soutenance : ** University of Arizona

**Grade : ** Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) 2008

**Résumé **

Designing monitoring networks that can discriminate among competing
conceptual models is a key challenge for hydrologists. This issue is examined by
considering the impact of network design on the utility of measurements for constraining
hydrologic prediction uncertainty. Specifically, a three-staged approach was developed
and is presented as a set of modeling case studies. The first case study presents a
sensitivity analysis that examines conditions under which the proposed measurement
method is likely to detect observations associated with the hydrologic process and
properties of interest. This application is focused on the use of geomorphic information to
estimate infiltration on arid alluvial fans.
The second stage is an assessment of the likely utility of the measurement method
to determine whether proposed measurements are likely to be useful for identifying
hydraulic properties or hydrologic processes. This objective screening approach could
reduce the number of unsuccessful uses of geophysical and other indirect measurement
methods. A hypothetical site assessment examines whether the measurement method,
temporal gravity change, is likely to detect signals associated with drawdown in an
unconfined aquifer that occurs in response to pumping. Also, the utility of these
measurements for identifying hydraulic conductivity and specific yield was considered.
The third stage, an analysis of optimal network design, compares the projected
measurement costs with the expected benefits of constraining hydrologic prediction
uncertainty. The final case study presents a network design approach for a feasibility
assessment of a proposed artificial recharge site. Predefined sets of proposed
measurements of temporal gravity change were considered for various measurement
times. An ensemble approach was used to assess the likely impact of measurement
error on prediction error and uncertainty for different combinations of measurement sets.
The ensemble of prediction errors was translated to probability-weighted performance
costs for each measurement set using a cost function. Total cost was calculated as the
sum of the performance and measurement costs. The optimal measurement set, defined as
the set with the lowest total cost, depends on the prediction of interest, the per
measurement cost, the maximum risk-based cost associated with the hydrologic
prediction, and the treatment of uncertainty in defining performance costs.

**Mots-clés : ** gravity ; infiltration ; pumping ; aquifer ; hydraulic properties ; alluvial fans

Page publiée le 19 avril 2011, mise à jour le 4 avril 2017