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Michigan State University (1996)

Effects of Monetized Food Aid on Local Maize Prices in Mozambique

Donovan, Cynthia

Titre : Effects of Monetized Food Aid on Local Maize Prices in Mozambique

Auteur : Donovan, Cynthia

Université de soutenance : Michigan State University (MSU)

Grade : DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY 1996

Résumé partiel
Yellow maize commercial (monetized) food aid has been a major policy instrument for meeting food security needs in Mozambique, particularly among the urban poor. This research studies the effects of this food aid on prices for Mozambique’s domestic white maize in difl‘erent locations, under current and likely fiiture conditions. Market studies, including a rapid appraisal of the white maize markets, were completed in Maputo and other provinces throughout the country. Then, time series analysis was conducted on weekly price data and weekly food aid deliveries data for the 1990-1995 period. Vector autoregressions were used to investigate the effects of unpredictable fluctuations in prices and quantities. War/drought and post-war/drought periods were determined and analyses conducted based on the separate time periods. In the war/drought pen’od, maize prices in Maputo were volatile and white maize supplies were highly limited. Heterogeneous preferences for white maize and yellow maize meant that white maize prices rose very high. The importance of yellow maize food aid in this period was as a cheaper consumption alternative, for those consumers willing to switch. In the second period, however, the analysis showed white maize prices would have been 10 -15 percent higher going into the harvest season of 1995, if food aid had not arrived. With time, the markets in other parts of Mozambique have begin to recuperate. Market integration analysis based on separate war/drought and post-war/drought periods demonstrated that the effects of Maputo price shocks on Chimoio prices (in a maize production area) were significant. Producer and trader incentives were affected by such shocks.

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