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Xinjiang University (2010)

Researceh In Couplling WRF Model With The Arid Snowmelt Runoff Model

Qin Yan

Titre : Researceh In Couplling WRF Model With The Arid Snowmelt Runoff Model

Auteur : Qin Yan

Grade : Master’s Theses 2010

Université : Xinjiang University

The snow is different from the other surface types, it is a saturated surface of the special nature of having a high reflectance. Especially its unique phase change process is accompanied by changes in energy and water plays an extremely important role in the regional water resources and global climate. Melting snow process simulation has become a research hotspot of climate change and hydrological sciences. Spring snow melt process complexity, the first use of a mesoscale numerical weather prediction models the 6h interval NCEP / NCAR reanalysis data for the guess field and lateral boundary conditions, to achieve high spatial resolution limited area numerical weather simulation ; then drive to design distributed snowmelt runoff model using simulated meteorological results, so as to establish based on a set of the atmospheric hydrological model coupled mesoscale and short-term seasonal snowmelt process and runoff forecasting models. The application of the model to simulate the Tianshan Mountains Army Tong Lake watershed March 2, 2009 to the 17th snowmelt process and runoff process. Simulation results using single point meteorological observation data, spatial snow cover data, the snowmelt runoff data validation, the following conclusions : (1) short-term numerical weather prediction model WRF its reasonable physical programs and advanced mode architecture, can be more accurate analog snowmelt during the temperature, radiation, relative humidity and other weather conditions, for Arid Zone snowmelt runoff model to provide data to support. (2) using the energy balance method to establish the single-layer distributed snowmelt model whether it is a single point of spatial scales, can simulate the seasonal snowmelt process of low mountain areas, to reflect the time and space of the snow melt process hydrothermal conditions heterogeneity and snowmelt runoff changes. Snow layer derived by simulating the energy input was Japanese cyclical changes ; net radiation is the dominant component of the energy balance of the snow surface, contributing 78% of the energy of the layer of snow throughout the snowmelt period, turbulence, followed by the total energy input of about was 22%. (3) WRF meteorological model and arid area distributed snowmelt runoff model coupling applied to the 2009 Spring Lake basin, Tianshan Mountains Army Tong complex snowmelt process simulation, the simulation results with the actual observation more consistent snow can reflect the space layer hydrothermal change and snowmelt runoff. Snowmelt Runoff Forecast value uncertainty coefficient of 0.85, the average peak relative error of 7.48%, and accuracy to meet the needs of practical application. The study may provide the basis for data-sparse areas snow melt process simulation and snowmelt runoff forecasting

Mots clés : Snowmelt Runoff Model, WRF, Simulation, JunTang River Basin

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