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Accueil du site → Doctorat → États-Unis → 1988 → Stochastic modeling of seasonal intermittent streamflow in arid and semi-arid areas

Colorado State University (1988)

Stochastic modeling of seasonal intermittent streamflow in arid and semi-arid areas

Chebaane Mohamed

Titre : Stochastic modeling of seasonal intermittent streamflow in arid and semi-arid areas

Auteur : Mohamed Chebaane

Université de soutenance : Colorado State University

Grade : Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) 1988

Résumé
Arid and semi-arid areas represent more than a third of the earth’s surface. Water scarcity is the major problem in the development of these areas. An integrated management of surface water, ground water and even waste water is needed to circumvent the water shortage or at least minimize the effect of severe droughts. Water in the form of seasonal streamflow is of practical interest in this study. Stochastic modeling of hydrologic time series in general and streamflow in particular are important in the design and operation of water resources systems. Several attempts have been made in the past two decades to model intermittent seasonal streamflows. One of the crucial problems in modeling the latter process is the handling of zero flows. This research has been focussed on developing a seasonal stochastic model for intermittent streamflows in arid and semi-arid regions which can adequately overcome the aforementioned shortcoming and be able to reproduce other important flow characteristics. The model proposed here considers the intermittent seasonal flow process as a product of a binary discrete process by a continuous process. Both binary discrete and continuous processes belong to the family of autoregressive moving average models. Five monthly intermittent streamflow data obtained from arid and semi-arid regions were used to compare the newly developed model with an existent known model. It was found that the product seasonal binary discrete AR(1) - mixed autoregressive Gamma model, developed herein, generally outperformed the existent Modified Method of Fragment model, MMF, with regard to the reproduction of the basic characteristics of the intermittent monthly streamflows and the preservation of storage and drought properties.

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Page publiée le 25 octobre 2013, mise à jour le 18 novembre 2018