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Julius-Maximilians-Universität Würzburg (2012)

Future changes in climate means and extremes in the Mediterranean region deduced from a regional climate model

Paxian, Andreas

Titre : Future changes in climate means and extremes in the Mediterranean region deduced from a regional climate model

Auteur : Paxian, Andreas

Université de soutenance : Julius-Maximilians-Universität Würzburg

Grade : Doctoral Thesis 2012

Résumé
he Mediterranean area reveals a strong vulnerability to future climate change due to a high exposure to projected impacts and a low capacity for adaptation highlighting the need for robust regional or local climate change projections, especially for extreme events strongly affecting the Mediterranean environment. The prevailing study investigates two major topics of the Mediterranean climate variability : the analysis of dynamical downscaling of present-day and future temperature and precipitation means and extremes from global to regional scale and the comprehensive investigation of temperature and rainfall extremes including the estimation of uncertainties and the comparison of different statistical methods for precipitation extremes. For these investigations, several observational datasets of CRU, E-OBS and original stations are used as well as ensemble simulations of the regional climate model REMO driven by the coupled global general circulation model ECHAM5/MPI-OM and applying future greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and land degradation scenarios

Mots Clés : Extremwertstatistik ; Klimamodellierung ; Mittelmeer ; Modellierung ; regionales Klimamodell climate modelling ; regional climate model — Klima ; Klimaschwankung ; Klimaänderung ; Mittelmeerraum ; Modell ; Niederschlag ; Temperatur

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