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Zhejiang University (2013)

Regionalization of Agricultural Meteorological Drought Risk and Loss Evaluation in Sichuan-Chonsqins Area

张峰; Zhang Feng

Titre : Regionalization of Agricultural Meteorological Drought Risk and Loss Evaluation in Sichuan-Chonsqins Area

Auteur : 张峰; Zhang Feng

Grade : Doctoral Dissertation 2013

Université : Zhejiang University

Résumé partiel
In the summer of2006, Sichuan-Chongqing region suffered the worst drought in recent50years, combined with the persistent drought occurring in Southwest of China from2009to2010, both of which caused great losses in crop yield. Paddy rice is the staple in this region. Quantitative assessing and monitoring agriculture meteorological drought has great significance on agriculture structural adjustment and policy-making with respect to disaster prevention. Recently, few studies have focused on meteorological drought risk assessment in Sichuan-Chongqing region. This paper uses the50-year meteorological data obtained from43meteorological stations, and the information associated with rice yield, rice growth area and disaster statistics to explore agriculture meteorological disaster risk assessment in the Sichuan-Chongqing region with quantitative analysis of rice yield losses in2006.This paper selected3first-grade indices, including the hazard risk (H), the order vulnerability (V) and the disaster resistance (RE) and12second-grade indices to establish the comprehensive assessment index (R). In the aspect of remote sensing monitoring, TRMM3B43(Tropical Rainfall Measure Mission) was used to calculate monthly precipitation anomaly and cumulative monthly precipitation anomaly in order to indicate the spatial distribution of meteorological drought from2000to2012in studied region. The19typical drought periods were selected according to TRMM data. Three temperature-vegetation drought indices (TVDIN, TVDIE, and TVDIM) were constructed to analyze their feature spaces, and their relationship with precipitation trends and soil moisture data in10cm and20cm depth from98meteorological sites. Spatial comparison between TVDIM-based soil moisture and TRMM-based precipitation data from these selected19typical drought periods was made. Given the relationship as "precipitation-soil moisture-vegetation growth" the lag-response of anomaly vegetation index (ANDVI) to precipitation and soil moisture was analyzed. Three methods as Lagrange interpolation method, Linear moving average method and Average yield-reduction method (with rice area extraction, yield assessment, and drought-suffering area estimation) were used to estimate rice yield losses in2006.This paper focuses on agriculture meteorological drought risk assessment, remote sensing monitoring and rice yield losses assessment, all of which are crucial in agriculture drought study area. The key findings are as follows : (1) The highest R values were found in Chengdu, Deyang, Chongqing and Suining city, et al. Various factors could lead to the high R values, and the high order vulnerability was the main contributor. The areas in the western and northern region of Sichuan, such as Aba and Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture have the lowest R values. Rice yield loss model was used to validate the agriculture meteorological drought risk model used in this study. These two models had a significant correlation (R2=0.45, P<0.05).(2) The data derived from TRMM and observed precipitation amount were significant correlated (P<0.001). TRMM-based precipitation anomalies showed that the severe drought occurring in June to August of2006were mainly found in areas such as Yibin, Shapingba, and Suining city.

Mots clés : Drought; agriculture meteorological disaster risk assessment; remotesensing monitoring; loss assessment; Sichuan-Chongqing region;

Présentation (CNKI)

Page publiée le 7 avril 2014, mise à jour le 30 septembre 2017