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China Water Conservancy and Hydropower Research (2013)

Study on Driving Mechanism and Assessment Methods of Drought

蒋桂芹;Jiang Gui Qin

Titre : Study on Driving Mechanism and Assessment Methods of Drought

Auteur :

Grade : Doctoral Dissertation 2013

Université : China Water Conservancy and Hydropower Research

Résumé partiel
Drought, as a natural phenomenon which has been disturbing us for a long time, has attracted wide attention in the field of weather, hydrology, agriculture and ecological environment. The driving mechanism and influence of climate change and human activities on drought has become the hotspot in scientific research as well as the great challenge to the sustainable development of our economy and society. The research on driving mechanism and the assessment method is of great demand in coping with drought, guaranteeing the national water resource security and supporting sustainable development to our economy and society.Drought can be divided into meteorological drought, hydrological drought and agricultural drought from different perspectives, which can be considered as the reflection of natural-artificial dualistic characteristics of hydrological cycle anomaly. Based on the theory of natural-artificial dualistic characteristics of hydrological cycle, climatic system and physiological ecology of crop, the drought driving factors of meteorological drought, hydrological drought and agricultural drought were identified and the driving mechanism were investigated in this study. The quantitative analysis of drought driving was conducted through building drought evaluation index and improving assessment method of drought. It is verified in typical watershed using the simulation platform designed. The main contents of this thesis can be concluded as follows:1) The research progress of the driving mechanism of drought and assessment method at home and abroad is summarized.The research progress of drought driving mechanism, assessment method and the analysis of driving mechanism are summarized and the issue in urgent need to be addressed is proposed. Then, the main research contents and technical route are outlined.2) The driving mechanism of meteorological drought, hydrological drought and agricultural drought is discussed.Based on the understanding of the definition of drought, the concepts of the three kinds of drought are defined and the process of evolution, buffering, beginning, developing and relieving of drought is analyzed. The driving mechanism and factors of meteorological drought, hydrological drought and agricultural drought are discussed. The changes of atmospheric circulation anomaly and underlying surface are the main driving factors of meteorological drought. The climatic variation, land use change and water resources development are the principal factors of hydrological drought and agricultural drought.3) The evaluation indexes of hydrological drought based on full-aperture water resource were proposed, the indexes of meteorological drought and agricultural drought were optimized and the assessment method of drought was improved.The theoretical framework of drought is put forward according to data preparation, index calculation of drought and statistic analysis. The evaluation indexes of hydrological drought based on full-aperture water resource were proposed, the indexes of meteorological drought and agricultural drought were optimized and the calculation methods of drought duration, area, intensity, frequency and other characteristic indexes. Then, the characteristic analysis of drought was systematically summarized from the aspects of single variable, bivariate and multivariable. Finally, the assessment method of drought can be achieved programmatically.4) The drought driving analysis framework based on driving force-pressure-status-response model was established and the method of quantitative drought driving analysis was put forward.A drought driving analysis framework based on driving force-pressure-status-response model was established from the perspective of systematic idea. The principal driving factors were quantified through combining the result of drought driving mechanism

Mots clés : meteorological drought; hydrological drought; agricultural drought; drivingmechanism; assessment method; WACM; the northern Haihe River;

Présentation (CNKI)

Page publiée le 8 avril 2014, mise à jour le 30 septembre 2017