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Xinjiang University (2010)

Study on Prediction Model of Desertication on Oasis-desert Eco-tone

Mai Mai Ti Yi Ming•Wu Mai Er

Titre : Study on Prediction Model of Desertication on Oasis-desert Eco-tone

Auteur : Mai Mai Ti Yi Ming•Wu Mai Er

Grade : Master’s Theses 2010

Université : Xinjiang University

Résumé
Deserts and Desertification is the world ’s largest environmental problems in recent years more and more serious desertification , although about dust and sand movement patterns formed research more, but also achieved remarkable results, but quantitative description of the diffusion process on the desert the study was relatively small. oasis - desert ecotone between oasis and desert is among the most unstable ecological regions , so the research environment of this particular area of study for revealing the evolution of ecological substance , maintenance and development of the oasis has important practical significance of this paper attempts to desert - an oasis effect relationship between the paper analyzes the characteristics of desertification ecotone reference epidemic model , based on mathematical and physical principles to establish a desert dispersion prediction model, and the model gives a qualitative analysis using the Runge - Kutta method for the numerical simulation model , an example of Hotan Minfeng verify the reliability of the model , and with the combination of remote sensing image processing technology , Cele Xinjiang Hotan oasis of desertification analysis and forecast , predicted the results correspond with the actual data . prediction model proposed in this paper is simple and practical, this model can provide predictable and deserts spread of reference data in meaningful work full text of five , is the first introductory part , explain the problem of desertification seriousness of purpose and significance , described the situation at home and abroad desertification studies section II is a model part , the model gives the theoretical background, model assumptions and structure, and the model gives a qualitative analysis of the model III verify section to verify the model example of Xinjiang Minfeng reliability . fourth application of the model is part of the future of Xinjiang Cele oasis gives desertification trends forecast are summarized in section V of the full text and give the outlook .

Mots clés : Oasis - Desert Ecotone Desert Forecast Model Equilibrium point Stability Numerical Simulation

Présentation (Dissertation topics)

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