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Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (2012)

Uncertainty analysis of hydrological model results and assessment regarding water risks in the Mediterranean Basin – Case study : Chiba, Tunisia

Hummel, Franz Maximilian

Titre : Uncertainty analysis of hydrological model results and assessment regarding water risks in the Mediterranean Basin – Case study : Chiba, Tunisia

Auteur : Hummel, Franz Maximilian

Université de soutenance : Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München

Grade : Master’s 2012

Résumé partiel
Mediterranean countries are very vulnerable to possible impacts of climate induced changes on hydrological budgets and extreme events. Mediterranean regions are already affected by a variety of natural and man-made threats regarding water security like severe droughts, extreme flooding, salinization of coastal aquifers, degradation of fertile soils and increasing desertification due to unsustainable management practices. With climate change amplifying these problems in the future there would arise increased potential for tensions and conflicts in this area. Despite the scientific knowledge that these changes may occur it is difficult to quantify these changes due to a variety of inherent sources of uncertainty. That was enough reason for the European Commission (EC) to initialize a series of projects within the Seventh Framework Programme Collaborative Research Project (FP7). Therein the project CLIMB (Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins - Reducing Uncertainty and Quantifying Risk through an Integrated Monitoring and Modeling System) was started which should investigate present and future climate induced changes in the hydrological budgets and extremes for Mediterranean and neighboring countries. This master thesis applies techniques to quantify uncertainties and associated risks in Chiba basin for a reference (1971 – 2000) and scenario period (2041 – 2070) respectively. The Chiba catchment is a test site of the CLIMB project and situated on Cap-Bon peninsula in the north east of Tunisia.

Mots clés : hydrological modelling, Tunisie, water risks

Présentation

Page publiée le 23 novembre 2014, mise à jour le 19 janvier 2018