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King Abdulaziz University (2012)

Assessment of coupled global climate models for seasonal climate predictability over Saudi Arabia

Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar

Titre : Assessment of coupled global climate models for seasonal climate predictability over Saudi Arabia

تقييم نماذج المناخ العالمي المقترنة لتوقع المناخي الفصلي فوق المملكة العربية السعودية

Auteur : Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar

Université de soutenance : King Abdulaziz University

Grade : Master 2012

Résumé
This work describes the assessment of Atmosphere Ocean Global Climate Models (AOGCMs) for seasonal climate prediction over Saudi Arabia for the period 1981-2002. The 22-year hindcast experiments for the season November to January (NDJ) are performed by using the AOGCM of the Seoul National University (SNU) model, and the results are compared with observational gridded data as well as with the datasets of seven fully coupled models from the Development of a European Multi-model Ensemble system for seasonal to inTERannual prediction (DEMETER) project. The ability of the individual models is revealed through various statistical methods. The precipitation and temperature analyses show that the SNU model performed better than the DEMETER models in terms of mean climatology, bias, annual cycle and variability. However, it has relatively low anomaly correlation over the study area. The signal-to-noise ratio shows that the SNU model and the DEMETR models have high predictability skills over the tropical region ; however none of the models shows significant predictability skills over Saudi Arabia. Improvements in the SNU model, such as increasing horizontal resolution and vertical levels, improving parameterization and model initialization, may lead to better seasonal climate predictability in the study area.

Présentation

Page publiée le 22 décembre 2014, mise à jour le 6 décembre 2017