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King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals (2014)

IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CROP WATER REQUIREMENTS IN SAUDI ARABIA

ABBAS ABDULLAH ABDO

Titre : IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CROP WATER REQUIREMENTS IN SAUDI ARABIA

Auteur : ABBAS ABDULLAH ABDO

Université de soutenance : King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals

Grade : Master 2014

Résumé
This study investigated possible implications of climate change on crop water requirement (CWR) from 2011 to 2050 in Saudi Arabia. Four scenarios : (i) CWR at current state of temperature and rainfall (S1) ; (ii) CWR at the changed temperature in 2050 and current state of rainfall (S2) ; (iii) CWR at changed rainfall in 2050 and current state of temperature (S3) ; and (iv) CWR at changed temperature and changed rainfall in 2050 (S4), were investigated. The CROPWAT software from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) was used to predict CWR. Assuming no change in the regulations relating to agriculture and irrigation in future, CWR was predicted to be 8713 – 9221 million cubic meters per year (MCM/yr) for the S1 - S4 scenarios. The overall increase in CWR was estimated to be in the range of 463 - 508 MCM/yr from 2011 to 2050, representing 5.3 – 6% increase for the same level of crop productions. Assuming linear increase from 2011 to 2050, increase in CWR was estimated to be in the range of 11.9 – 13 MCM/yr in each year from 2011. This increase was due to the increase in temperature mainly, while the effect of rainfall changes was minimal. Increase in CWR is equivalent to producing 4886 - 5360 tons of wheat per year. Sensitivity analysis was performed by shifting the growing periods for the main crops. Possible water conservation by shifting crop growing periods was estimated to be 732 – 904 MCM/yr. This study might be useful in explaining the negative effects of climate change on CWR in the arid regions and better planning for water resources management.

Présentation

Page publiée le 7 décembre 2014, mise à jour le 3 novembre 2017