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Février 2007

Mixed prospects for the 2007 cereal crops in Southern Africa

FAO/GIEWS Global Watch Regional Update as of 15 January 2007

- Mixed prospects for the 2007 cereal crops in Southern Africa
FAO/GIEWS Global Watch Regional Update as of 15 January 2007

  • As the 2006/07 agricultural season in Southern Africa nears the mid-point, heavy rains were reported through much of the region in the third dekad of December and beginning of January, causing localized floods in Namibia, Botswana, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Mozambique and Madagascar.
  • In October and November favorable rains were received in main crop growing areas of south-western Angola, northern Namibia, Botswana, South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland. However, the other areas of the region, especially the northern parts, remained generally dry, which delayed planting operations. Cumulative rainfall difference from the average of past eight years for the first three months of the season (October-December), shows normal to above normal precipitation through the western and southern parts of the region and northern areas of Madagascar but below normal in the northern and eastern part of the region, including northern Angola, northern and central Mozambique, areas of Zambia and Zimbabwe, as well as central and southeastern areas of Madagascar
  • The vegetative growth at the first dekad of January 2007, as indicated by the NDVI difference from the long term average showing also the main maize growing areas in the region, reflects similar but more pronounced west-east and north-south differences in the growing season.
  • Moreover, in southern areas, in spite of generally satisfactory rains during the season, many localized areas have experienced an erratic precipitation including significant dry spells. In addition, the forecast for the second half of the season points to a drier than normal climatology primarily due to the El-Nino conditions. Thus the regional outlook for the 2007 main season cereal harvest at this stage is mixed with early prospects unfavorable in Zambia and Madagascar, and favorable in other countries.

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Page publiée le 22 février 2007, mise à jour le 8 septembre 2007