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Wageningen University (2011)

Exploratory analysis of climatic data, fire occurrences and water regimes in a Mediterranean watershed

Decuyper, M.

Titre : Exploratory analysis of climatic data, fire occurrences and water regimes in a Mediterranean watershed

Auteur : Decuyper, M. 

Université de soutenance : Wageningen University

Grade : Master of Science (MS) 2011

Résumé
Trend results from climate data (precipitation and temperature) were analysed in relation to trends in water flow and forest fire occurrence over a 30 year time span in the Ebro watershed in Spain. An important part of the study was dedicated to data selection and preparation. Water and climate data are notorious for containing gaps and therefore artificial neural networks (ANN’s) were tested and proved to be reliable to fill up those gaps, but were unfortunately too time consuming. After the selection of unaltered gauging stations (i.e. no influence by dams or irrigation, etc.) and climate stations with data availability from 1976 – 2006, linear regression analysis was applied to the evaluation of changes in water flow regime, climate and forest fires. The results confirmed that there were changes in those variables, however limited to some locations (very few for forest fire occurrence). To identify regionalization of the compounded regimes a cluster analysis was performed based on a principal component analysis (PCA) of the slope estimates (trends). A clear regionalization could not be delineated but some locations showed remarkable changes in water flow and climate over time. The spatial overlay of trend areas indicated that climate change could be related to water flow regime change, to some extent, in some of the locations where gauging and climate stations indicated the highest rate of change over time.

Mots clés : climatic change / hydrology / forest fires / water flow / geographical information systems / spain

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Page publiée le 17 mars 2015, mise à jour le 13 octobre 2018