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Accueil du site → Doctorat → Portugal → Alterações climáticas na agricultura portuguesa : instrumentos de análise, impactos e medidas de adaptação

Universidade Tecnica de Lisboa (2006)

Alterações climáticas na agricultura portuguesa : instrumentos de análise, impactos e medidas de adaptação

Brandão, Ana Maria Cancella de Abreu de Paiva

Titre : Alterações climáticas na agricultura portuguesa : instrumentos de análise, impactos e medidas de adaptação

Climate change in portuguese agriculture : analysis tools, impacts and adaptation measures

Auteur : Brandão, Ana Maria Cancella de Abreu de Paiva

Université de soutenance : Universidade Tecnica de Lisboa

Grade : Doutoramento em Engenharia Agronómica 2006

Résumé
There is a mounting evidence of climate change at a global scale. Temperature and carbon dioxide (CO2) increases and changes in precipitation are the main observed changes. In order to evaluate the impacts of these changes on wheat and maize in Continental Portugal CSM- -CROPSIM-CERES-Wheat and CSM-CERES-Maize models of DSSAT v4.0 were used after being calibrated to the conditions of Elvas. Weather data came from two HadRM3 model simulations. Soil data were collected from different soil map sources, standardised and completed using pedo- -transfer functions to fill in the missing soil properties. Soil data were then stored in a georeferenced database. In the future scenarios, yields decreased between -23% and -3% from control situations, reflecting the integration of positive (CO2) and negative (temperature) effects. Maize water use efficiency change was not consistent (-21% to 10%), but there was a positive nitrogen use efficiency change (2% to 69%). The anticipation of planting date avoided general yield decreases in future scenarios (1% to 7%). Moreover, maize water needs decreased (-15% to -2%), while applied nitrogen needs increased (3% to 17%).

Mots clés : climate change climate scenarios agriculture simulation models alterações climáticas cenários climáticos modelo de simulação impacto adaptação

Présentation et version intégrale

Page publiée le 23 janvier 2015, mise à jour le 12 juin 2017