Informations et ressources scientifiques
sur le développement des zones arides et semi-arides

Titre : Vulnerabilidad de la productividad agrícola de temporal al cambio climático global en México

Auteur : Castillo Álvarez, Marcial

Etablissement de soutenance : Colegio de Postgraduados (COLPOS) Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACYT)

Grade : Doctorado 2007

Résumé
The global climate change that is expected during XXI century inevitably should affect the agricultural crop productivity. The predictions of vulnerability of agricultural crops productivity in relation with existing scenarios of climate change during the 21st century are usually carried out without taking into account the alteration in soil fertility due to climate change. The goal of the present work is to assess the role of such factor in the rainfed maize (C4) and wheat (C3) productivities in different reference sites of Mexico, using the climate change scenarios developed by the Center for Atmospheric Sciences, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, for the case of atmospheric CO2 doubling by the end of 21st century. The relationship between the integral soil fertility index F (for genetically homogeneous soils) and climatic index was established in order to assess the soil fertility alteration. The real and potential productivities of the crops, F index and water availability change were predicted. The soil fertility alteration can cause crop yield changes of up to 20%, which indicates its importance for crop productivity predictions. The results predict the growth of maize yield up to 463 kg·ha-1 in arid and semiarid zones, and its reduction in up to 392 kg·ha-1 in humid and semihumid zones. In the case of wheat it is expected, in general, a crop yield growth of up to 1100 kg·ha-1.

Mots clés : Índice Hidrotérmico Local. Índice Integral de Fertilidad del Suelo. Maíz. Trigo. Doctorado. Hidrociencias. Radiative Index of dryness. Integral soil fertility index. Maize. Wheat.

Présentation

Version intégrale (3,99 Mb)