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University of Minnesota (1983)

THE LOWER MOULOUYA IRRIGATION PROJECT : AN ASSESSMENT OF ITS SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ON THE NORTHEAST OF MOROCCO

DEUSON, ROBERT ROGER

Titre : THE LOWER MOULOUYA IRRIGATION PROJECT : AN ASSESSMENT OF ITS SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT ON THE NORTHEAST OF MOROCCO

Auteur : DEUSON, ROBERT ROGER

Université de soutenance : University of Minnesota

Grade : Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) 1983

Résumé
This dissertation aims at (1) reappraising the economic viability of the Lower Moulouya irrigation project, and (2) determining the structure of the economy created by the inception of the project. The first objective is achieved by carrying out an ex-post financial benefit-cost analysis. The second objective is achieved by building an input-output model of the Moulouya economy. The baseline benefit-cost analysis yields a net present value of 200 million DH, a benefit-cost ratio of 1.25, and an internal rate of return of 10.5 percent. The cash flow is negative before 1983 but turns positive thereafter. Out of the total benefits generated by the project, 33.2 percent went to farm operators, 31.8 percent to farm laborers, 21.4 percent to land owners, 9 percent to ORMVAM, and 4.6 percent to consumers. The analysis is robust : it will stand aggregate data estimation errors of plus or minus 20 percent without affecting the general conclusions. This ex-post analysis corroborates the major ex-ante analysis : the project is yielding net benefits about as expected almost 15 years ago. In the construction of the Moulouya input-output model, three data bases were pooled together to provide the information necessary to identify intersectoral transactions : (1) primary data from a survey of 185 farmers, (2) interviews of the managers of major agribusinesses, and (3) secondary data provided mainly by ORMVAM. The survey data are aggregated into seven crop sectors, one livestock sector, and four agricultural input sectors. The interview data are aggregated into five agribusiness sectors. Secondary data are aggregated into ORMVAM, households, government subsidy, import-exports, and local sectors. The interpretation of the transactions table reveals that the inception of the project in the Lower Moulouya has transformed its economy from a subsistence one to a modern, export-oriented, economy where vegetable, livestock, and citrus are leading sectors and in which the role of agribusinesses is predominant. Both crop and agribusiness sectors are providing substantial sources of employment for a growing

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