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Accueil du site → Doctorat → Royaume-Uni → 1989 → A comparative study of fertility change in Tunisia, Syria and Yemen

University of London (1989)

A comparative study of fertility change in Tunisia, Syria and Yemen

Aoun, S

Titre : A comparative study of fertility change in Tunisia, Syria and Yemen

Auteur : Aoun, S

Université de soutenance : University of London

Grade : Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) 1989

The Arab countries have maintained fertility levels among the highest in the world, despite a considerable social and economic development in the past two decades. The trends in these high fertility levels have been marked by a typical Arab pattern of fertility quite distinctive from the other Asian and African countries, in terms of nuptiality, breast-feeding, contraceptive practice and family size preferences. The aim of this research is (a) to analyse the determinants of the characteristic pattern of fertility change in the Arab countries and (b) to interpret fertility changes across cohorts within the family building process. Tunisia, Syria and Yemen AR have been selected for this comparative study, because they represent the Arab countries in their three types of fertility transition, declining, constant and rising, respectively. The World Fertility Surveys have proved to be the most reliable source of information on fertility in the three countries. The traditional demographic methods usually applied to interpret fertility changes, suffer from several disadvantages which obscure real trends. The alternative approach followed is to examine the build-up of family for cohorts by birth order, using the life-table analysis of birth intervals. The life-table estimate which measures the speed of reproduction is the BEO, the probability of achieving the next birth within 5 years of the previous one. The procedure adopted to eliminate the selectivity effect which biases the life-table estimates, is called the paired comparison procedure. It has been successfully applied to Latin American and South Asian countries, and this is its first application to Arab countries. This procedure combined with the life-table technique has been effective in discerning the different patterns of family formation within each birth order in Tunisia, Syria and Yemen AR. It has determined the extent to which the reproductive behaviour of younger cohorts has changed from that of older women, in terms of the speed and timing of reproduction. Differentials in the family formation patterns by education and type of residence are considerable in Tunisia and Syria

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