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Accueil du site → Doctorat → États-Unis → 1997 → Climate sensitivity and water management in the upper Amu Darya basin

University of Colorado (1997)

Climate sensitivity and water management in the upper Amu Darya basin

Bedford, Daniel Peter

Titre : Climate sensitivity and water management in the upper Amu Darya basin

Auteur : Bedford, Daniel Peter

Université de soutenance : University of Colorado

Grade : Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) 1997

This dissertation is concerned with the hydrological responses of the upper Amu Darya basin in Central Asia to climatic warming, and the management implications of those responses. The Amu Darya is an important river in three respects : environmentally, as one of the main water sources for the environmental disaster zone of the Aral Sea ; economically, as a major source of irrigation water ; and politically, since the collapse of the USSR has left the new states of Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan, along with Afghanistan, in control of the river basin. Work to develop water management plans for the region generally do not consider climate change, and this dissertation aims to fill this gap. The main sources of water for the Amu Darya are melting snow and glaciers in the upper part of the basin, so the spatial focus is here. Recent glacier behaviour is examined, and sensitivity of the upper basin to warming of +1, +3 and +5$\sp\circ$C for wet, dry and intermediate conditions is examined using a deterministic snowmelt runoff model. The results indicate large increases in river discharge during early parts of the April-September melt season in response to climatic warming, and decreases later in the season, relative to present conditions. This indicates a "compressed hydrograph" common in studies of this kind. The largest structures in the upper Amu Darya basin seem to be sufficient to regulate these changes in river regime, but improved co-operation between all basin states will be necessary. Adoption of the UN Convention on the Law of Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses is suggested as a blueprint for a future treaty between the basin states to facilitate this co-operation.

Mots clés : Water-supply – Management. Climatic changes – Runoff – Periodicity. – Asia, Central. Water-supply.

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Page publiée le 17 février 2015, mise à jour le 19 novembre 2018